Thresholds to rural energy transition: The multistage effects of urbanization on the rural household energy consumption structure

Rapid urbanization in China is a crucial driver of the rural household energy transition. However, existing research predominantly treats this process as a single-stage process, overlooking the multistage effects of urbanization and the heterogeneity of its mechanisms across different stages. To address this gap, this study employs panel data from 31 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2020 and develops a novel threshold-STIRPAT analytical model from the perspectives of population, socioeconomics, and energy technology. The model identifies the distinct stages of rural household energy transition in China and investigates the stage mechanisms through which urbanization influences this transition. The main findings are: 1) An "N-shaped" curve relationship exists between urbanization and rural household energy transition across three stages. The turning points in the rural household energy transition correspond to urbanization levels of 32.61 % and 74.14 %. 2) Urbanization exhibits a dual threshold effect on rural household energy transition. Specifically, the threshold values in the population model are 37.38 % and 73.42 %; in the socio-economic model are 33.99 % and 82.86 %; and in the energy technology model are 37.38 % and 71.61 %. 3)The mediating factors through which urbanization influences rural household energy transition differ across the three stages. In the first stage, key factors include rural population age structure, energy price and energy intensity; in the second stage, energy price, rural population age structure and rural population educational level play a dominant role; and in the third stage, energy price, rural population age structure and energy intensity emerge as the primary mediators.