Multi-type load characteristic modelling and state inference on power-to-ammonia and power-to-methanol production unit under fluctuating electricity-hydrogen interaction

Power to X technology enables the targeted conversion between electrical energy and chemical energy. While this technology significantly promotes deep carbon reduction in the chemical industry, it also indirectly introduces the inherent uncertainties of renewable energy into production units. In the context of electric-hydrogen interactions, if gas buffer tanks cannot fully mitigate hydrogen source fluctuations, the operational states of multiple devices within the unit will deviate, resulting in load states instability. To construct load characteristic models with strong adaptability to fluctuating environments, this study constructs state inference on P2A and P2M production units. The inference process progresses from microscopic reaction equilibrium states through mesoscopic equipment operational conditions, ultimately culminating in macroscopic load states. Using energy consumption per unit mass of product as the load state evaluation metric, the various load states of production units are inferred under different feed gas ratio and feed flow rate deviations. Source disturbances of H₂, N₂ and CO2 trigger multi-scale equilibrium shifts, affecting syngas flow and system states from micro to macro levels. The inherent characteristics of the two types of units, particularly in terms of reaction systems, syngas circulation processes, and purification techniques, are the primary factors contributing to the differences in load states.