Energy and industry transition to carbon-neutrality in Nordic conditions via local renewable sources, electrification, sector coupling, and power-to-X

Climate change presents challenges for energy-industry systems, especially for regions with limited solar resources. This study investigates energy transition pathways to achieve a low-cost energy-industry system in Nordic conditions, focusing on Finland, which lacks abundant hydropower. It analyses the transition to carbon neutrality in power, heat, transport, and industry sectors, highlighting dispatchable biomass power, which can increase system flexibility, but raises concerns about carbon sinks. The results show that energy-industry systems in the Nordics can transform into a responsive system, matching the availability of wind and solar resources with support from flexibility options, sector coupling, 18 GWel of electrolysers and over 96 TWh of bioenergy use. Point-source capture of industrial and bio-CO2 supply 14.3 MtCO2 for e-fuels and e-chemicals. For Finland, the transition entails investments of 460 b€ until 2050, with 100 GW of renewable energy capacities, 19 GW of power-to-X capacities, and electrification of heat supply for industry, leading to an energy-industry system with lower annualised costs than today. A cost-optimal energy transition in Finland can be achieved through a mix of wind power, solar photovoltaics, bioenergy, and hydropower, with self-sufficient energy supply scenarios offering advantages in energy security and local investments despite being slightly more expensive.