Re-evaluating the effectiveness of regional energy saving targets: Empirical evidence from the Eleventh Five-year Plan in China

Improving total factor energy efficiency is a critical issue for China's development today, with the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” energy-saving target policy serving as an important moment in the country's shift towards an energy-conserving society. This study collects data on energy-saving target constraints at the prefecture level from 2001 to 2010 and takes a Difference-in-Differences methodology to examine the influence of the energy-saving target policy on regional total factor energy efficiency. The research findings suggest that the energy-saving target policy significantly enhances total factor energy productivity, as evidenced by a range of robustness assessments. Mechanism analysis reveals that regions with higher energy-saving targets achieve improvements in total factor energy efficiency through adjustments in economic growth targets, technological advancement, and more efficient resource allocation. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that energy efficiency improvements are more pronounced in regions with stronger governance and promotion incentives experience. This research offers pivotal policy implications for the rational devising and systematic enactment of energy conservation targets in China, particularly within the ambit of the “dual carbon” objectives. It contributes insights that are crucial for ensuring the strategic alignment and scientific rigor in the formulation and execution of policies aimed at mitigating carbon emissions and promoting energy efficiency.