A novel system dynamics modelling approach to investigate cooking fuel transitions and policy effectiveness: An application in rural India

In this paper, we develop a novel system dynamics model named the Household Energy Access Transition (HEAT)-cooking that has been designed to analyze the evolution of fuel and technology choices for cooking at the household level. It incorporates several features new to literature, like a two-stage perceived disutility function to emulate how households are deterred from using biomass-based fuels despite their cost advantage, and a financial burden function which models how the use of modern fuels becomes burdensome as their share in the household's overall expenditure rises. To showcase its utility, we use it to understand the evolution of choices of cooking fuels and technologies in rural Indian households in the 2011–2021 timeframe and reveal the efficacy of policies designed to promote the use of Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) in that time. Overall, the model suggests that both, the Pratyaksh Hanstantrit Labh-Direct Benefit Transfer of LPG and Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, schemes were unable to achieve their overall goal of transitioning rural Indian households away from biomass-based fuel with LPG being a secondary cooking fuel, on an average, even in 2021. Finally, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed significantly towards dissuading modern fuel use, with the poorest households almost abandoning its use.