Assessment of decarbonization pathway for Chinese road transport sector based on transportation-energy integration systems framework

The road transport sector becomes the most difficult sector to fully decarbonize due to its heavy reliance on oil. It is not clear how to affordably achieve low-carbon transition in China yet. In order to identify the most optimal pathway for emission reduction, a transportation-energy integration systems framework was established to analyze CO2 emission reduction potential and cost-benefit. The results of the case study demonstrate that the main source of carbon emissions are heavy freight truck and light passenger vehicles which accounting for 71.7 % of the total. Implementation of vehicle carbon capture technology and electrification transition can reduce 39.5 % CO2 emissions by 2050. However, rapid electrification of transport has led to a sectoral shift rather than an effective reduction in CO2 emissions. The Avoid-Shift-Improve strategy which exhibits good synergy in technology and policy represents a comprehensive approach to overcome this problem. To achieve the carbon neutrality in road transport of China, the most cost-benefit order of implementation from the beginning to the end are demand-side management, improving the efficiency of internal combustion engines, deployment of carbon capture technology and electrification transition.