Determinants of carbon emissions from road transportation in China: An extended input-output framework with production-theoretical approach

Curbing carbon emissions from road transportation (RTC) is crucial for mitigating global climate change, given the sector's substantial energy consumption and extensive economic linkages with upstream and downstream sectors. However, limiting policies strictly to production activities within the road transport sector may weaken overall emission mitigation efforts, underscoring the need to address supply- and demand-side factors driving RTC. This study develops an extended input-output framework combined with a production-theoretical approach to identify the major drivers of changes in China's RTC (2002–2020) from a supply-demand synergy perspective. The results show that: (1) supply-push and demand-pull linkage levels of RTC both exceed one, indicating significant environmental impacts of road transportation on—and sensitivity to—other economic sectors despite its relatively weak carbon performance; (2) approximately 73 % of RTC arises from fulfilling intermediate demands of other sectors, led by construction, highlighting road transport's central position in industrial chains; and (3) demand-side effects increased RTC by about 638 Mt, primarily due to expanding final demand, whereas supply-side effects collectively reduced RTC by around 268 Mt, with energy efficiency playing the largest role. These findings suggest that transitioning toward low-carbon road transportion requires coordinated efforts across all economic sectors, thereby providing policymakers with guidance on integrating supply- and demand-side carbon reduction measures.