Low-carbon planning for integrated power-gas-hydrogen system with Wasserstein-distance based scenario generation method

To facilitate the low-carbon energy transition, the penetration of hydrogen energy is progressively increasing. Driven by the fact that electricity and natural gas serve as primary feedstocks for hydrogen (H2) production, the power grid, natural gas network, and hydrogen network are intricately coupled and interact. In light of this tight integration, this paper proposes a low-carbon planning framework for the integrated power-gas-hydrogen system to mitigate carbon emissions in the H2 production process. The proposed collaborative planning method seeks to determine the optimal installation strategy and achieve the most cost-effective planning under emission constraints. In the proposed multi-energy model, both steam methane reforming (SMR) and water electrolysis are considered as H2 production methods. The reduction of emissions in the H2 production process is achieved by leveraging renewable energy sources (RESs) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technique. Additionally, the collaborative low-carbon planning method not only considers the coupling energy flow, but also analyzes the carbon flow by carbon emission flow (CEF) model. Furthermore, to address uncertainties associated with the RESs, a Wasserstein distance and Gaussian mixture model based uncertainty modeling method (W-GMM) is proposed to generate scenarios of wind and solar power. Finally, the low-carbon planning method and uncertainty modeling methods are validated through an integrated system of a 24-bus power grid, a 9-node hydrogen network and a 7-node natural gas network. Through decarbonization planning, the total emissions of three HPSs are reduced to 3.89 kt CO2 with the cap set as 5 kt CO2, achieving a 70.6% reduction from the initial emissions of 13.23 kt CO2, which highlights the effectiveness of the decarbonization effect of the proposed approach.