Analysis on carbon emission and peak forecasting of urban industrial zone renewal process in China based on extended Kaya identity

In Paris Agreement, China promised to achieve peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. Given the circumstance that urban industrial zone renewal is an important original force of urban construction, it is of great significance to investigate the impact of its renewal strategy on carbon emissions. This research proposed the conception of carbon emission intensity baseline (CEIB) for urban industrial zone renewal. Through Kaya identity extension for carbon emission prediction, 5 influencing factors were selected and their weights and contribution degrees on carbon emission were calculated using logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) analysis. A mathematical model of quantitative relationship between total carbon emission and its influencing factors was formulated by multiple linear ridge regression fitting for forecasting the carbon emission in operation phase after the completion of the renewal. Finally, scenario analysis of economy incentive, green developed and environment protective scenario was adopted for carbon emission peak value and year forecasting. Results showed that under different circumstances of preservation rate, certain scenarios of post-development pattern can achieve carbon emission peak by 2030. This study provides data and theoretical support for forecasting carbon peak and reasonable suggestions for further building energy efficiency in the whole process of urban industrial zone renewal.