Analysis of energy-related carbon dioxide intensity in China's major non-ferrous metal producing regions: Spatio-temporal decomposition and emission reduction strategies

With the vision of carbon peak by 2030, China's non-ferrous metal industry needs to achieve low-carbon development as soon as possible. This study adopts the logarithmic mean Divisa index (LMDI) method to decompose carbon dioxide (CO2) emission intensity of China's major non-ferrous metal producing regions from 2006 to 2021 into carbon emission factor effect ΔCICF, fossil energy structure effect ΔCIES, clean energy substitution effect ΔCIFS, energy intensity effect ΔCIEI, and industrial structure effect ΔCIIS, and then uses the scenario analysis method to predict the CO2 intensity in 2030. The results indicate that: (1) The CO2 intensity of the southern provinces generally appears a decreasing trend during the study period, and the average CO2 intensity of the northern provinces is higher than that of the southern provinces. (2) ΔCIEI is the most important driver of CO2 intensity in most regions, while ΔCICF suppresses CO2 intensity for most regions. (3) The CO2 intensity in Guangxi, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang in 2021 is above average, and Hunan is the province with the lowest CO2 intensity. (4) Under the enhanced low-carbon scenario, Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang are the top three provinces in terms of emission reduction ratio. The results of the study provide policy guidance for different non-ferrous metal producing regions to increase technological transformation, optimize industrial structure and industrial shift.