Can green transportation accelerate carbon neutrality? Evidence from low-carbon transport systems pilot

Building low-carbon transportation systems is vital for achieving carbon neutrality. This study evaluates the impact of low-carbon transport system pilot policies (pilot policy) on urban carbon emissions and their spillover effects, using panel data from 280 Chinese cities (2003–2019). Treating these policies as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ time-varying difference-in-differences and spatial Durbin models. Results show that pilot policies significantly reduce urban carbon emissions, with robust effects across tests. Additionally, these policies exhibit substantial spatial spillover effects, lowering emissions in both pilot and neighboring cities, with stronger direct effects in pilot cities. The effectiveness varies by urban region, city size, and transportation characteristics, showing greater impacts in northwest and south China, smaller cities, cities with high-speed rail, those with high transportation labor investment, and cities with smaller transportation scales. This study enhances understanding of carbon neutrality pathways and provides actionable insights for policymakers, industry stakeholders, and the public.