IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v282y2023ics0360544223017206.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Robust assessment of energy scenarios from stakeholders' perspectives

Author

Listed:
  • Vögele, Stefan
  • Teja Josyabhatla, Vishnu
  • Ball, Christopher
  • Rhoden, Imke
  • Grajewski, Matthias
  • Rübbelke, Dirk
  • Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm

Abstract

Using scenarios is vital in identifying and specifying measures for successfully transforming the energy system. Such transformations can be particularly challenging and require the support of a broader set of stakeholders. Otherwise, there will be opposition in the form of reluctance to adopt the necessary technologies. Usually, processes for considering stakeholders' perspectives are very time-consuming and costly. In particular, there are uncertainties about how to deal with modifications in the scenarios. In principle, new consulting processes will be required. In our study, we show how multi-criteria decision analysis can be used to analyze stakeholders' attitudes toward transition paths. Since stakeholders differ regarding their preferences and time horizons, we employ a multi-criteria decision analysis approach to identify which stakeholders will support or oppose a transition path. We provide a flexible template for analyzing stakeholder preferences toward transition paths. This flexibility comes from the fact that our multi-criteria decision analysis-based approach does not involve intensive empirical work with stakeholders. Instead, it involves subjecting assumptions to robustness analysis, which can help identify options to influence stakeholders' attitudes toward transitions.

Suggested Citation

  • Vögele, Stefan & Teja Josyabhatla, Vishnu & Ball, Christopher & Rhoden, Imke & Grajewski, Matthias & Rübbelke, Dirk & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, 2023. "Robust assessment of energy scenarios from stakeholders' perspectives," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223017206
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.128326
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223017206
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.128326?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tervonen, Tommi & Lahdelma, Risto, 2007. "Implementing stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 178(2), pages 500-513, April.
    2. JosÉ Figueira & Salvatore Greco & Matthias Ehrogott, 2005. "Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis: State of the Art Surveys," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-23081-8, July-Dece.
    3. Volkart, Kathrin & Weidmann, Nicolas & Bauer, Christian & Hirschberg, Stefan, 2017. "Multi-criteria decision analysis of energy system transformation pathways: A case study for Switzerland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 155-168.
    4. Ribeiro, Fernando & Ferreira, Paula & Araújo, Madalena, 2013. "Evaluating future scenarios for the power generation sector using a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) tool: The Portuguese case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 126-136.
    5. Risto Lahdelma & Pekka Salminen, 2010. "Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA)," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Matthias Ehrgott & José Rui Figueira & Salvatore Greco (ed.), Trends in Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 285-315, Springer.
    6. Pinho, Joana & Resende, Joana & Soares, Isabel, 2018. "Capacity investment in electricity markets under supply and demand uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 1006-1017.
    7. Ball, Christopher Stephen & Vögele, Stefan & Grajewski, Matthias & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, 2021. "E-mobility from a multi-actor point of view: Uncertainties and their impacts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Georgopoulou, E. & Lalas, D. & Papagiannakis, L., 1997. "A multicriteria decision aid approach for energy planning problems: The case of renewable energy option," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 38-54, November.
    9. Sonja Simon & Mengzhu Xiao & Carina Harpprecht & Shima Sasanpour & Hedda Gardian & Thomas Pregger, 2022. "A Pathway for the German Energy Sector Compatible with a 1.5 °C Carbon Budget," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-26, January.
    10. Kumar, Abhishek & Sah, Bikash & Singh, Arvind R. & Deng, Yan & He, Xiangning & Kumar, Praveen & Bansal, R.C., 2017. "A review of multi criteria decision making (MCDM) towards sustainable renewable energy development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 596-609.
    11. Jos� I. Mu�oz & Derek W. Bunn, 2013. "Investment risk and return under renewable decarbonization of a power market," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(sup01), pages 87-105, March.
    12. Shmelev, Stanislav E. & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2016. "Optimal diversity of renewable energy alternatives under multiple criteria: An application to the UK," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 679-691.
    13. Nayyar Hussain Mirjat & Mohammad Aslam Uqaili & Khanji Harijan & Mohd Wazir Mustafa & Md. Mizanur Rahman & M. Waris Ali Khan, 2018. "Multi-Criteria Analysis of Electricity Generation Scenarios for Sustainable Energy Planning in Pakistan," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-33, March.
    14. Mostafa Shaaban & Jürgen Scheffran & Jürgen Böhner & Mohamed S. Elsobki, 2018. "Sustainability Assessment of Electricity Generation Technologies in Egypt Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-25, May.
    15. Mareschal, Bertrand & Brans, Jean-Pierre, 1988. "Geometrical representations for MCDA," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 69-77, February.
    16. Hottenroth, H. & Sutardhio, C. & Weidlich, A. & Tietze, I. & Simon, S. & Hauser, W. & Naegler, T. & Becker, L. & Buchgeister, J. & Junne, T. & Lehr, U. & Scheel, O. & Schmidt-Scheele, R. & Ulrich, P. , 2022. "Beyond climate change. Multi-attribute decision making for a sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    17. Baležentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2017. "Multi-criteria ranking of energy generation scenarios with Monte Carlo simulation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P1), pages 862-871.
    18. Georgopoulou, E. & Sarafidis, Y. & Diakoulaki, D., 1998. "Design and implementation of a group DSS for sustaining renewable energies exploitation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 483-500, September.
    19. Rahman, Md. Mizanur & Paatero, Jukka V. & Lahdelma, Risto & A. Wahid, Mazlan, 2016. "Multicriteria-based decision aiding technique for assessing energy policy elements-demonstration to a case in Bangladesh," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 237-244.
    20. Dodgson, JS & Spackman, M & Pearman, A & Phillips, LD, 2009. "Multi-criteria analysis: a manual," Economic History Working Papers 12761, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    21. Behzadian, Majid & Kazemzadeh, R.B. & Albadvi, A. & Aghdasi, M., 2010. "PROMETHEE: A comprehensive literature review on methodologies and applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(1), pages 198-215, January.
    22. Sward, Jeffrey A. & Nilson, Roberta S. & Katkar, Venktesh V. & Stedman, Richard C. & Kay, David L. & Ifft, Jennifer E. & Zhang, K. Max, 2021. "Integrating social considerations in multicriteria decision analysis for utility-scale solar photovoltaic siting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hottenroth, H. & Sutardhio, C. & Weidlich, A. & Tietze, I. & Simon, S. & Hauser, W. & Naegler, T. & Becker, L. & Buchgeister, J. & Junne, T. & Lehr, U. & Scheel, O. & Schmidt-Scheele, R. & Ulrich, P. , 2022. "Beyond climate change. Multi-attribute decision making for a sustainability assessment of energy system transformation pathways," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    2. Philip Mayer & Christopher Stephen Ball & Stefan Vögele & Wilhelm Kuckshinrichs & Dirk Rübbelke, 2019. "Analyzing Brexit: Implications for the Electricity System of Great Britain," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-27, August.
    3. Thushara, De Silva M. & Hornberger, George M. & Baroud, Hiba, 2019. "Decision analysis to support the choice of a future power generation pathway for Sri Lanka," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C), pages 680-697.
    4. Hernandez-Perdomo, Elvis A. & Mun, Johnathan & Rocco S., Claudio M., 2017. "Active management in state-owned energy companies: Integrating a real options approach into multicriteria analysis to make companies sustainable," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 487-502.
    5. Sellak, Hamza & Ouhbi, Brahim & Frikh, Bouchra & Palomares, Iván, 2017. "Towards next-generation energy planning decision-making: An expert-based framework for intelligent decision support," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1544-1577.
    6. Strantzali, Eleni & Aravossis, Konstantinos, 2016. "Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 885-898.
    7. Paula Donaduzzi Rigo & Graciele Rediske & Carmen Brum Rosa & Natália Gava Gastaldo & Leandro Michels & Alvaro Luiz Neuenfeldt Júnior & Julio Cezar Mairesse Siluk, 2020. "Renewable Energy Problems: Exploring the Methods to Support the Decision-Making Process," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Corrente, Salvatore & Figueira, José Rui & Greco, Salvatore, 2014. "The SMAA-PROMETHEE method," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 239(2), pages 514-522.
    9. Alessio Ishizaka & Philippe Nemery, 2013. "A Multi-Criteria Group Decision Framework for Partner Grouping When Sharing Facilities," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 773-799, July.
    10. Wulf, David & Bertsch, Valentin, 2016. "A natural language generation approach to support understanding and traceability of multi-dimensional preferential sensitivity analysis in multi-criteria decision making," MPRA Paper 75025, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Indre Siksnelyte & Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas & Dalia Streimikiene & Deepak Sharma, 2018. "An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in Dealing with Sustainable Energy Development Issues," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-21, October.
    12. Silvia Angilella & Maria Rosaria Pappalardo, 2022. "Performance assessment of energy companies employing Hierarchy Stochastic Multi-Attribute Acceptability Analysis," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 299-370, March.
    13. Harrison Mutikanga & Saroj Sharma & Kalanithy Vairavamoorthy, 2011. "Multi-criteria Decision Analysis: A Strategic Planning Tool for Water Loss Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(14), pages 3947-3969, November.
    14. Vögele, Stefan & Rübbelke, Dirk & Mayer, Philip & Kuckshinrichs, Wilhelm, 2018. "Germany’s “No” to carbon capture and storage: Just a question of lacking acceptance?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 205-218.
    15. Aryanpur, Vahid & Atabaki, Mohammad Saeid & Marzband, Mousa & Siano, Pierluigi & Ghayoumi, Kiarash, 2019. "An overview of energy planning in Iran and transition pathways towards sustainable electricity supply sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 58-74.
    16. Sola, Antonio Vanderley Herrero & Mota, Caroline Maria de Miranda & Kovaleski, João Luiz, 2011. "A model for improving energy efficiency in industrial motor system using multicriteria analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3645-3654, June.
    17. Höfer, Tim & Madlener, Reinhard, 2020. "A participatory stakeholder process for evaluating sustainable energy transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    18. Abbas Roozbahani & Banafsheh Zahraie & Massoud Tabesh, 2012. "PROMETHEE with Precedence Order in the Criteria (PPOC) as a New Group Decision Making Aid: An Application in Urban Water Supply Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3581-3599, September.
    19. Cavallaro, Fausto, 2010. "A comparative assessment of thin-film photovoltaic production processes using the ELECTRE III method," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 463-474, January.
    20. Muhammad Riaz & Wojciech Sałabun & Hafiz Muhammad Athar Farid & Nawazish Ali & Jarosław Wątróbski, 2020. "A Robust q-Rung Orthopair Fuzzy Information Aggregation Using Einstein Operations with Application to Sustainable Energy Planning Decision Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-39, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:282:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223017206. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.