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Democratization and world petroleum trade in the year 2000

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  • Das, Sujit

Abstract

The Middle East (ME) will continue to be the dominant supplier in the world oil market in the year 2000, according to supply-demand forecasts published by U.S. DOE. Our analysis suggests that interesting trade patterns will emerge as a result of the democratization in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe (EE). EE will import approximately 50% of its crude oil from the ME and its refined product exports will come to the U.S. and Latin America (LA) besides Western Europe (WE). A reduction in the net imports of WE and a better match between the crude quality and refinery configuration will cause some portion of FSU petroleum exports to come to North America. Much uncertainty remains about the level of future FSU crude oil production. Major FSU crude oil production loss will be compensated by higher production in the ME, LA, Africa, and the Far East. A big worldwide market exists for the FSU petroleum; however, many non-geological factors will determine whether the FSU will play a major role as an oil exporter in the future. Meanwhile, ME supply dominance will prevail.

Suggested Citation

  • Das, Sujit, 1994. "Democratization and world petroleum trade in the year 2000," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 19(7), pages 783-793.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:19:y:1994:i:7:p:783-793
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(94)90017-5
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