IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v163y2018icp1150-1177.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A hybrid scenario-based decommissioning forecast for the shallow water U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 2018–2038

Author

Listed:
  • Kaiser, Mark J.
  • Narra, Siddhartha

Abstract

The U.S. Gulf of Mexico is one of the oldest and most prolific offshore hydrocarbon basins in the world, producing over 52 billion barrels oil equivalent, 20.7 billion barrels of oil and 187 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, from 1947 to 2017. In recent years, the shallow water region has witnessed record levels of decommissioning activity due to aging fields, sustained low oil and gas prices, and greater regulatory oversight and scrutiny. It is no longer possible for operators to ‘kick the decommissioning can’ down the road and the result is that production and the number of structures on the shelf has declined significantly and are expected to continue to decrease in the future. The purpose of this paper is to present a model framework to estimate decommissioning activity in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico in water depth less than 400 ft (122 m). The problem is challenging because offshore structures are diverse, numerous, and are used in several different ways. Decline curves and cash-flow models represent best practices for producing structures, but for structures without production new approaches are needed. Three decommissioning models are developed using a hybrid scenario and probabilities characterize transitions between classes. From 2017 to 2022, between 474 and 828 structures are expected to be decommissioned in the shallow water Gulf of Mexico, and by 2027, between 704 and 1199 structures are expected to be decommissioned.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Mark J. & Narra, Siddhartha, 2018. "A hybrid scenario-based decommissioning forecast for the shallow water U.S. Gulf of Mexico, 2018–2038," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1150-1177.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:1150-1177
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.128
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544218316645
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2018.08.128?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kemp, Alexander G. & Stephen, Linda, 2011. "Prospective Decommissioning Activity and Infrastructure Availability in the UKCS," SIRE Discussion Papers 2011-56, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    2. Kaiser, Mark J. & Yu, Yunke & Snyder, Brian, 2010. "Economic feasibility of using offshore oil and gas structures in the Gulf of Mexico for platform-based aquaculture," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 699-707, May.
    3. Kaiser, Mark J., 2008. "Modeling regulatory policies associated with offshore structure removal requirements in the Gulf of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1038-1054.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hallack, Larissa Nogueira & Szklo, Alexandre, 2019. "Assessing the exploratory potential in Brazil by applying a creaming curve variant," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 672-683.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephan R. Kolian & Paul W. Sammarco & Scott A. Porter, 2018. "Use of retired oil and gas platforms for fisheries in the Gulf of Mexico," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 501-507, December.
    2. Kaiser, Mark J., 2009. "Hydrocarbon production forecast for committed assets in the shallow water Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 1813-1825.
    3. Gimpel, Antje & Stelzenmüller, Vanessa & Grote, Britta & Buck, Bela H. & Floeter, Jens & Núñez-Riboni, Ismael & Pogoda, Bernadette & Temming, Axel, 2015. "A GIS modelling framework to evaluate marine spatial planning scenarios: Co-location of offshore wind farms and aquaculture in the German EEZ," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 102-115.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:163:y:2018:i:c:p:1150-1177. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.