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2.6. Demand forecasting methodologies: An overview for electric utilities

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  • Faruqui, Ahmad
  • Kuczmowski, Thomas
  • Lilienthal, Peter

Abstract

Prior to 1973, most industries-including electric utilities-forecasted growth using rather straightforward time-trend approaches. While these approaches served the industry well during periods of steady and rapid growth, they failed to capture the underlying causal factors of growth. Thus, whey were unable to predict or explain the sudden changes in growth rates that have occurred since the 1973–1974 oil embargo. Therefore, more sophisticated econometric and end-use models forecasting techniques were introduced to the utility industry. The growing awareness of the implications of a finite fossil fuel supply, as well as the increases in electricity rates, led forecasters to consider electricity prices and conservation issues explicitly in their models. In the industrial sector, changes in technology, structural changes in the economy, and fuel switching issues have led to an interest in process models.

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  • Faruqui, Ahmad & Kuczmowski, Thomas & Lilienthal, Peter, 1990. "2.6. Demand forecasting methodologies: An overview for electric utilities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 285-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:15:y:1990:i:3:p:285-296
    DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(90)90090-O
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Y. & Li, Y.P. & Huang, G.H. & Fu, D.Z., 2013. "Modeling for planning municipal electric power systems associated with air pollution control – A case study of Beijing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-186.

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