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An empirical analysis of the hydropower portfolio in Pakistan

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  • Siddiqi, Afreen
  • Wescoat, James L.
  • Humair, Salal
  • Afridi, Khurram

Abstract

The Indus Basin of Pakistan with 800 hydropower project sites and a feasible hydropower potential of 60GW, 89% of which is undeveloped, is a complex system poised for large-scale changes in the future. Motivated by the need to understand future impacts of hydropower alternatives, this study conducted a multi-dimensional, empirical analysis of the full hydropower portfolio. The results show that the full portfolio spans multiple scales of capacity from mega (>1000MW) to micro (<0.1MW) projects with a skewed spatial distribution within the provinces, as well as among rivers and canals. Of the total feasible potential, 76% lies in two (out of six) administrative regions and 68% lies in two major rivers (out of more than 125 total channels). Once projects currently under implementation are commissioned, there would be a five-fold increase from a current installed capacity of 6720MW to 36759MW. It is recommended that the implementation and design decisions should carefully include spatial distribution and environmental considerations upfront. Furthermore, uncertainties in actual energy generation, and broader hydrological risks due to expected climate change effects should be included in the current planning of these systems that are to provide service over several decades into the future.

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  • Siddiqi, Afreen & Wescoat, James L. & Humair, Salal & Afridi, Khurram, 2012. "An empirical analysis of the hydropower portfolio in Pakistan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 228-241.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:228-241
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.063
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    2. Shaikh, Faheemullah & Ji, Qiang & Fan, Ying, 2015. "The diagnosis of an electricity crisis and alternative energy development in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1172-1185.
    3. Wajahat Ullah Khan Tareen & Zuha Anjum & Nabila Yasin & Leenah Siddiqui & Ifzana Farhat & Suheel Abdullah Malik & Saad Mekhilef & Mehdi Seyedmahmoudian & Ben Horan & Mohamed Darwish & Muhammad Aamir &, 2018. "The Prospective Non-Conventional Alternate and Renewable Energy Sources in Pakistan—A Focus on Biomass Energy for Power Generation, Transportation, and Industrial Fuel," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-49, September.
    4. Mohd Alsaleh & Muhammad Mansur Abdulwakil & Abdul Samad Abdul-Rahim, 2021. "Land-Use Change Impacts from Sustainable Hydropower Production in EU28 Region: An Empirical Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-19, April.
    5. Jamil, Rehan, 2020. "Hydroelectricity consumption forecast for Pakistan using ARIMA modeling and supply-demand analysis for the year 2030," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 1-10.
    6. Wang, Yongpei & Yan, Weilong & Zhuang, Shangwen & Zhang, Qian, 2019. "Competition or complementarity ? The hydropower and thermal power nexus in China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 531-541.
    7. Dhaubanjar, Sanita & Lutz, Arthur F & Pradhananga, Saurav & Smolenaars, Wouter & Khanal, Sonu & Biemans, Hester & Nepal, Santosh & Ludwig, Fulco & Shrestha, Arun Bhakta & Immerzeel, Walter W, 2024. "From theoretical to sustainable potential for run-of-river hydropower development in the upper Indus basin," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 357(C).
    8. Kwon Gi Mun & Yao Zhao & Raza Ali Rafique, 2021. "Designing Hydro Supply Chains for Energy, Food, and Flood," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 274-293, March.

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