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A simulation-based analysis of transition pathways for the Dutch electricity system

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  • Yücel, Gönenç
  • van Daalen, Cornelia

Abstract

Recent developments such as tighter national carbon budgets, changing economical competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. This study explores a range of plausible development trajectories for the system in terms of carbon emissions, fuel mix and prices with the currently employed policies and market setup. An agent-based simulation model is used in order to explore the dynamics of the system under eight different scenarios. The simulation experiments indicate the continuation of fossil fuel dominance as the energy source, and a shift from natural gas to coal seems likely in the base case. Even with CCS investments, such a development is demonstrated to cause a significant increase in carbon emissions beyond 2030, following two decades of almost-constant emission levels. In general, experiments indicate a very strong internal inertia in the system that is hard to overcome just by policies focusing on a single aspect of the system (e.g. demand, supply, or technology). It is also observed that significant reductions in carbon emissions can be attained as a joint outcome of increased green electricity demand, especially among large-scale end-users, and high carbon costs.

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  • Yücel, Gönenç & van Daalen, Cornelia, 2012. "A simulation-based analysis of transition pathways for the Dutch electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 557-568.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:42:y:2012:i:c:p:557-568
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.024
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    1. Jan Kwakkel & Gönenç Yücel, 2014. "An Exploratory Analysis of the Dutch Electricity System in Transition," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(4), pages 670-685, December.
    2. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    3. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Cosenz, Federico & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    4. Pieter Valkering & Gönenç Yücel & Ernst Gebetsroither-Geringer & Karin Markvica & Erika Meynaerts & Niki Frantzeskaki, 2017. "Accelerating Transition Dynamics in City Regions: A Qualitative Modeling Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Barazza, Elsa & Strachan, Neil, 2020. "The impact of heterogeneous market players with bounded-rationality on the electricity sector low-carbon transition," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    6. Widha Kusumaningdyah & Tetsuo Tezuka & Benjamin C. McLellan, 2021. "Investigating Preconditions for Sustainable Renewable Energy Product–Service Systems in Retail Electricity Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, March.

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