IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v41y2012icp184-192.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CSP electricity cost evolution and grid parities based on the IEA roadmaps

Author

Listed:
  • Hernández-Moro, J.
  • Martínez-Duart, J.M.

Abstract

The main object of this paper consists in the development of a mathematical closed-form expression for the evaluation, in the period 2010–2050, of the levelized costs of energy (LCOE) of concentrating solar power (CSP) electricity. For this purpose, the LCOE is calculated using a life-cycle cost method, based on the net present value, the discounted cash flow technique and the technology learning curve approach. By this procedure, the LCOE corresponding to CSP electricity is calculated as a function of ten independent variables. Among these parameters, special attention has been put on the evaluation of the available solar resource, the analysis of the IEA predicted values for the cumulative installed capacity, the initial (2010) cost of the system, the discount and learning rates, etc. One significant contribution of our work is that the predicted evolution of the LCOEs strongly depend, not only on the particular values of the cumulative installed capacity function in the targeted years, but mainly on the specific curved time-paths which are followed by this function. The results obtained in this work are shown both graphically and numerically. Finally, the implications that the results could have in energy planning policies and grid parity calculations are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández-Moro, J. & Martínez-Duart, J.M., 2012. "CSP electricity cost evolution and grid parities based on the IEA roadmaps," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 184-192.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:184-192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511008160
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vallentin, Daniel & Viebahn, Peter, 2010. "Economic opportunities resulting from a global deployment of concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies--The example of German technology providers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4467-4478, August.
    2. DeAnna Green, 2009. "Addressing concentrated poverty in America," Communities and Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Win, pages 24-27.
    3. Nemet, Gregory F., 2006. "Beyond the learning curve: factors influencing cost reductions in photovoltaics," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 3218-3232, November.
    4. Neij, Lena, 2008. "Cost development of future technologies for power generation--A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 2200-2211, June.
    5. Winkler, Harald & Hughes, Alison & Haw, Mary, 2009. "Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4987-4996, November.
    6. Calds, N. & Varela, M. & Santamara, M. & Sez, R., 2009. "Economic impact of solar thermal electricity deployment in Spain," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1628-1636, May.
    7. Purohit, Ishan & Purohit, Pallav, 2010. "Techno-economic evaluation of concentrating solar power generation in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 3015-3029, June.
    8. Schilling, Melissa A. & Esmundo, Melissa, 2009. "Technology S-curves in renewable energy alternatives: Analysis and implications for industry and government," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1767-1781, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aquila, Giancarlo & Coelho, Eden de Oliveira Pinto & Bonatto, Benedito Donizeti & Pamplona, Edson de Oliveira & Nakamura, Wilson Toshiro, 2021. "Perspective of uncertainty and risk from the CVaR-LCOE approach: An analysis of the case of PV microgeneration in Minas Gerais, Brazil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    2. Andreas Schröder & Friedrich Kunz & Jan Meiss & Roman Mendelevitch & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Current and Prospective Costs of Electricity Generation until 2050," Data Documentation 68, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Soni, M.S. & Gakkhar, Nikhil, 2014. "Techno-economic parametric assessment of solar power in India: A survey," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 326-334.
    4. Bendjebbas, H. & Abdellah-ElHadj, A. & Abbas, M., 2016. "Full-scale, wind tunnel and CFD analysis methods of wind loads on heliostats: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 452-472.
    5. Mwasilu, Francis & Justo, Jackson John & Kim, Eun-Kyung & Do, Ton Duc & Jung, Jin-Woo, 2014. "Electric vehicles and smart grid interaction: A review on vehicle to grid and renewable energy sources integration," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 501-516.
    6. Zhang, M.M. & Zhang, C. & Liu, L.Y. & Zhou, D.Q., 2020. "Is it time to launch grid parity in the Chinese solar photovoltaic industry? Evidence from 335 cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    7. Gu Choi, Dong & Yong Park, Sang & Park, Nyun-Bae & Chul Hong, Jong, 2015. "Is the concept of ‘grid parity’ defined appropriately to evaluate the cost-competitiveness of renewable energy technologies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 718-728.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hernández-Moro, J. & Martínez-Duart, J.M., 2013. "Analytical model for solar PV and CSP electricity costs: Present LCOE values and their future evolution," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 119-132.
    2. Xiaoru Zhuang & Xinhai Xu & Wenrui Liu & Wenfu Xu, 2019. "LCOE Analysis of Tower Concentrating Solar Power Plants Using Different Molten-Salts for Thermal Energy Storage in China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, April.
    3. Usaola, Julio, 2012. "Participation of CSP plants in the reserve markets: A new challenge for regulators," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 562-571.
    4. Peters, Michael & Schmidt, Tobias S. & Wiederkehr, David & Schneider, Malte, 2011. "Shedding light on solar technologies'A techno-economic assessment and its policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6422-6439, October.
    5. De Cian, Enrica & Buhl, Johannes & Carrara, Samuel & Michela Bevione, Michela & Monetti, Silvia & Berg, Holger, 2016. "Knowledge Creation between Integrated Assessment Models and Initiative-Based Learning - An Interdisciplinary Approach," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 249784, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    6. Rubin, Edward S. & Azevedo, Inês M.L. & Jaramillo, Paulina & Yeh, Sonia, 2015. "A review of learning rates for electricity supply technologies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 198-218.
    7. Parrado, C. & Marzo, A. & Fuentealba, E. & Fernández, A.G., 2016. "2050 LCOE improvement using new molten salts for thermal energy storage in CSP plants," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 505-514.
    8. Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2011. "Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3480-3500.
    9. Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
    10. Jenner, Steffen & Groba, Felix & Indvik, Joe, 2013. "Assessing the strength and effectiveness of renewable electricity feed-in tariffs in European Union countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 385-401.
    11. Bolinger, Mark & Wiser, Ryan, 2009. "Wind power price trends in the United States: Struggling to remain competitive in the face of strong growth," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1061-1071, March.
    12. Samadi, Sascha, 2018. "The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2346-2364.
    13. Strupeit, Lars & Neij, Lena, 2017. "Cost dynamics in the deployment of photovoltaics: Insights from the German market for building-sited systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 948-960.
    14. Elia, A. & Taylor, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B. & Rogan, F., 2020. "Wind turbine cost reduction: A detailed bottom-up analysis of innovation drivers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    15. Farmer, J. Doyne & Lafond, François, 2016. "How predictable is technological progress?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 647-665.
    16. Mathews, John A. & Baroni, Paolo, 2013. "The industrial logistic surface: Displaying the impact of energy policy on uptake of new technologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 733-740.
    17. Polzin, Friedemann & Sanders, Mark, 2020. "How to finance the transition to low-carbon energy in Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Mauleón, Ignacio, 2016. "Photovoltaic learning rate estimation: Issues and implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 507-524.
    19. Hong, Sungjun & Chung, Yanghon & Woo, Chungwon, 2015. "Scenario analysis for estimating the learning rate of photovoltaic power generation based on learning curve theory in South Korea," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 80-89.
    20. Sommerfeldt, Nelson & Madani, Hatef, 2017. "Revisiting the techno-economic analysis process for building-mounted, grid-connected solar photovoltaic systems: Part one – Review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1379-1393.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:41:y:2012:i:c:p:184-192. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.