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Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

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  • Serhat, Kucukali

Abstract

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhat, Kucukali, 2011. "Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6683-6688, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6683-6688
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kucukali, Serhat & Baris, Kemal, 2010. "Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2438-2445, May.
    2. Kucukali, Serhat & Baris, Kemal, 2009. "Assessment of small hydropower (SHP) development in Turkey: Laws, regulations and EU policy perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3872-3879, October.
    3. Aggidis, G.A. & Luchinskaya, E. & Rothschild, R. & Howard, D.C., 2010. "The costs of small-scale hydro power production: Impact on the development of existing potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2632-2638.
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