IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v39y2011i10p6683-6688.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach

Author

Listed:
  • Serhat, Kucukali

Abstract

In this paper, a fuzzy rating tool was developed for river-type hydropower plant projects, and risk assessment and expert judgments were utilized instead of probabilistic reasoning. The methodology is a multi-criteria decision analysis, which provides a flexible and easily understood way to analyze project risks. The external risks, which are partly under the control of companies, were considered in the model. A total of eleven classes of risk factors were determined based on the expert interviews, field studies and literature review as follows: site geology, land use, environmental issues, grid connection, social acceptance, macroeconomic, natural hazards, change of laws and regulations, terrorism, access to infrastructure and revenue. The relative importance of risk factors was determined from the survey results. The survey was conducted with the experts that have experience in the construction of river-type hydropower schemes. The survey results revealed that the site geology and environmental issues were considered as the most important risks. The new risk assessment method enabled a Risk Index (R) value to be calculated, establishing a 4-grade evaluation system. The proposed risk analysis will give investors a more rational basis to make decisions and it can prevent cost and schedule overruns.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhat, Kucukali, 2011. "Risk assessment of river-type hydropower plants using fuzzy logic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6683-6688, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6683-6688
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511005234
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kucukali, Serhat & Baris, Kemal, 2010. "Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2438-2445, May.
    2. Aggidis, G.A. & Luchinskaya, E. & Rothschild, R. & Howard, D.C., 2010. "The costs of small-scale hydro power production: Impact on the development of existing potential," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2632-2638.
    3. Kucukali, Serhat & Baris, Kemal, 2009. "Assessment of small hydropower (SHP) development in Turkey: Laws, regulations and EU policy perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3872-3879, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kelly-Richards, Sarah & Silber-Coats, Noah & Crootof, Arica & Tecklin, David & Bauer, Carl, 2017. "Governing the transition to renewable energy: A review of impacts and policy issues in the small hydropower boom," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 251-264.
    2. Baris, Kemal & Kucukali, Serhat, 2012. "Availibility of renewable energy sources in Turkey: Current situation, potential, government policies and the EU perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 377-391.
    3. Agnieszka Operacz, 2021. "Possibility of Hydropower Development: A Simple-to-Use Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-19, May.
    4. Yuo-Hsien Shiau & Su-Fen Yang & Rishan Adha & Syamsiyatul Muzayyanah, 2022. "Modeling Industrial Energy Demand in Relation to Subsector Manufacturing Output and Climate Change: Artificial Neural Network Insights," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Nallapaneni Manoj Kumar & Aneesh A. Chand & Maria Malvoni & Kushal A. Prasad & Kabir A. Mamun & F.R. Islam & Shauhrat S. Chopra, 2020. "Distributed Energy Resources and the Application of AI, IoT, and Blockchain in Smart Grids," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-42, November.
    6. Borkowski, Dariusz & Węgiel, Michał & Ocłoń, Paweł & Węgiel, Tomasz, 2019. "CFD model and experimental verification of water turbine integrated with electrical generator," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 875-883.
    7. Gholami, M. & Barbaresi, A. & Torreggiani, D. & Tassinari, P., 2020. "Upscaling of spatial energy planning, phases, methods, and techniques: A systematic review through meta-analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    8. Laghari, J.A. & Mokhlis, H. & Bakar, A.H.A. & Mohammad, Hasmaini, 2013. "A comprehensive overview of new designs in the hydraulic, electrical equipments and controllers of mini hydro power plants making it cost effective technology," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 279-293.
    9. Rentizelas, Athanasios & Georgakellos, Dimitrios, 2014. "Incorporating life cycle external cost in optimization of the electricity generation mix," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-149.
    10. Nieves, J.A. & Aristizábal, A.J. & Dyner, I. & Báez, O. & Ospina, D.H., 2019. "Energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions analysis in Colombia: A LEAP model application," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 380-397.
    11. Ahn, Soo-Hwang & Xiao, Yexiang & Wang, Zhengwei & Zhou, Xuezhi & Luo, Yongyao, 2017. "Performance prediction of a prototype tidal power turbine by using a suitable numerical model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 293-302.
    12. Mubashir Qasim & Koji Kotani, 2014. "An empirical analysis of energy shortage in Pakistan," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 137-166, June.
    13. Auth, Trevor L. & Wackerman, Grace E. & Garcia, Marcelo H. & Stillwell, Ashlynn S., 2021. "Low-head hydropower as a reserve power source: A case study of Northeastern Illinois," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 980-989.
    14. Capik, Mehmet & Osman Yılmaz, Ali & Cavusoglu, İbrahim, 2012. "Hydropower for sustainable energy development in Turkey: The small hydropower case of the Eastern Black Sea Region," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(8), pages 6160-6172.
    15. Song, Cuihong & Gardner, Kevin H. & Klein, Sharon J.W. & Souza, Simone Pereira & Mo, Weiwei, 2018. "Cradle-to-grave greenhouse gas emissions from dams in the United States of America," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 945-956.
    16. Meita Rumbayan & Rilya Rumbayan, 2023. "Feasibility Study of a Micro Hydro Power Plant for Rural Electrification in Lalumpe Village, North Sulawesi, Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-13, September.
    17. Urošević, Branka Gvozdenac & Marinović, Budimirka, 2021. "Ranking construction of small hydro power plants using multi-criteria decision analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 1174-1183.
    18. Ahn, Soo-Hwang & Tian, Hong & Cao, Jingwei & Duo, Wenzhi & Wang, Zhengwei & Cui, Jianhua & Chen, Lin & Li, Yang & Huang, Guoping & Yu, Yunpeng, 2023. "Hydraulic performances of a bulb turbine with full field reservoir model based on entropy production analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 347-360.
    19. Židonis, Audrius & Benzon, David S. & Aggidis, George A., 2015. "Development of hydro impulse turbines and new opportunities," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1624-1635.
    20. Wang, Yuanyuan & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhao, Ge & Dong, Yao, 2012. "Application of residual modification approach in seasonal ARIMA for electricity demand forecasting: A case study of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 284-294.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:10:p:6683-6688. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.