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Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China

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  • Gnansounou, Edgard
  • Dong, Jun

Abstract

The disturbances of energy supply that may result from both external and domestic events create a significant threat for national economy due to potential impacts on the productivity, employment and overall economic growth. Building scenarios of the economy's vulnerability to these disturbances is delicate because of the significant number of interrelated factors that should be taken into consideration. In this paper, a logic-based model (LBM) is developed, which allows for defining, exploring and assessing the determinants and the indicators of the economy's vulnerability related to the energy supply disturbances within a coherent scenarios assessment framework. The proposed model is illustrated with the case of China. After developing the general framework, three particular scenarios are investigated. Based on the case study, the performance and limitations of the model are analyzed, and its ability to evaluate national energy policies is discussed. Finally, some recommendations for further improvements are made.

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  • Gnansounou, Edgard & Dong, Jun, 2010. "Vulnerability of the economy to the potential disturbances of energy supply: A logic-based model with application to the case of China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 2846-2857, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:6:p:2846-2857
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    2. Ju, Keyi & Su, Bin & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, P. & Zhang, Yuqiang, 2015. "Oil price crisis response: Capability assessment and key indicator identification," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1353-1360.
    3. Oguzhan Aslanturk & Goktug K pr zl, 2020. "The Role of Renewable Energy in Ensuring Energy Security of Supply and Reducing Energy-Related Import," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 354-359.
    4. Unver, Mustafa & Dogru, Bulent, 2015. "The Determinants of Economic Fragility: Case of the Fragile Five Countries," MPRA Paper 68734, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    5. Gatto, Andrea & Drago, Carlo, 2020. "Measuring and modeling energy resilience," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Daphné Lorne & Stéphane Tchung-Ming, 2012. "The French biofuels mandates under cost uncertainty - an assesment based on robust optimization," Working Papers hal-03206367, HAL.

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