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Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

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  • Chen, Tser-Yieth
  • Yu, Oliver S.
  • Hsu, George Jyh-yih
  • Hsu, Fang-Ming
  • Sung, Wei-Nown

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ("Season in the Sun", "More Desire than Energy", and "Castle in the Air") to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Tser-Yieth & Yu, Oliver S. & Hsu, George Jyh-yih & Hsu, Fang-Ming & Sung, Wei-Nown, 2009. "Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2900-2906, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:8:p:2900-2906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Linneman, Robert E. & Klein, Harold E., 1985. "Using scenarios in strategic decision making," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 64-74.
    2. Oliver S. Yu, 2006. "Technology Portfolio Planning and Management," International Series in Operations Research and Management Science, Springer, number 978-0-387-35448-4, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ioannou, Anastasia & Angus, Andrew & Brennan, Feargal, 2017. "Risk-based methods for sustainable energy system planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 602-615.
    2. Yeh, Tsai-lien & Chen, Tser-yieth & Lai, Pei-ying, 2010. "A comparative study of energy utilization efficiency between Taiwan and China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2386-2394, May.
    3. Prasad, Ravita D. & Bansal, R.C. & Raturi, Atul, 2014. "Multi-faceted energy planning: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 686-699.
    4. Cucchiella, Federica & D’Adamo, Idiano, 2012. "Feasibility study of developing photovoltaic power projects in Italy: An integrated approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 1562-1576.
    5. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & Wood, David A., 2019. "A Layered Uncertainties Scenario Synthesizing (LUSS) model applied to evaluate multiple potential long-run outcomes for Iran's natural gas exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 646-659.
    6. Yoon, Jungsub & Oh, Yoonhwan & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2017. "The impact of policy consistency on technological competitiveness: A study on OECD countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 425-434.
    7. Fang, Chin-Yi & Hu, Jin-Li & Lou, Tze-Kai, 2013. "Environment-adjusted total-factor energy efficiency of Taiwan's service sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1160-1168.
    8. Cowan, Kelly & Daim, Tugrul & Anderson, Tim, 2010. "Exploring the impact of technology development and adoption for sustainable hydroelectric power and storage technologies in the Pacific Northwest United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4771-4779.
    9. Yoonhwan Oh & Jungsub Yoon & Jeong-Dong Lee, 2016. "Evolutionary Patterns of Renewable Energy Technology Development in East Asia (1990–2010)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(8), pages 1-24, July.
    10. Jamal, Taskin & Urmee, Tania & Shafiullah, G.M., 2020. "Planning of off-grid power supply systems in remote areas using multi-criteria decision analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C).
    11. Davide Astiaso Garcia & Federica Barbanera & Fabrizio Cumo & Umberto Di Matteo & Benedetto Nastasi, 2016. "Expert Opinion Analysis on Renewable Hydrogen Storage Systems Potential in Europe," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(11), pages 1-22, November.
    12. Donato Morea & Lucilla Bittucci & Arturo Cafaro & Fabiomassimo Mango & Pina Murè, 2021. "Can the Current State Support Mechanisms Help the Growth of Renewable Energies in Wind Markets?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-17, November.
    13. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Amer, M. & Akhavan, A.N., 2017. "A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post–sanction period," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 851-864.

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