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This time it's different: An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritarian regimes

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  • Leder, Frederic
  • Shapiro, Judith N.

Abstract

There is virtual agreement among geologists that world production of conventional oil will peak at some point in the future. Oil, after all, is a finite resource, while demand will only grow over time. Geologists disagree, however, exactly when the peak will occur. Using data from the International Energy Agency, the US Department of Energy, the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, and petroleum industry sources, we argue that conventional oil production will reach a worldwide maximum within the next 5-10 years, earlier than generally estimated, thus leaving a very short time frame within which to plan for conversion to alternative sources of energy. Unless planning is initiated immediately, the United States and other Western democracies will see their positions in the global economy undercut as military conflicts over limited energy resources increase, and wealth and power are shifted to authoritarian regimes in Russia, Venezuela, Africa and the Middle East.

Suggested Citation

  • Leder, Frederic & Shapiro, Judith N., 2008. "This time it's different: An inevitable decline in world petroleum production will keep oil product prices high, causing military conflicts and shifting wealth and power from democracies to authoritar," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2840-2842, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:36:y:2008:i:8:p:2840-2842
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    Cited by:

    1. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    2. Noguera-Santaella, José, 2016. "Geopolitics and the oil price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 301-309.
    3. Asbjørn Torvanger & Steffen Kallbekken & Petter Tollefsen, 2012. "Oil price scenarios and climate policy: welfare effects of including transportation in the EU emissions trading system," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 17(7), pages 753-768, October.
    4. Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices: The role of international trade for Germany," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 882-887, November.
    5. Friedrichs, Jörg, 2010. "Global energy crunch: How different parts of the world would react to a peak oil scenario," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4562-4569, August.
    6. Yusof, Ahmad & Raman, Maznah & Nopiah, Zulkifli, 2013. "Modeling of the Malaysian Crude Oil System," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 47(1), pages 125-130.
    7. Hanff, Elodie & Dabat, Marie-Hélène & Blin, Joël, 2011. "Are biofuels an efficient technology for generating sustainable development in oil-dependent African nations? A macroeconomic assessment of the opportunities and impacts in Burkina Faso," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(5), pages 2199-2209, June.
    8. García, Carlos A. & Manzini, Fabio & Islas, Jorge, 2010. "Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 3032-3040, December.
    9. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    11. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Umar, Muhammad, 2020. "A review of resource curse burden on inflation in Venezuela," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).

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