Trojan horse or horn of plenty? Reflections on allowing CCS in the CDM

The discussion around allowing CO2 capture and geological storage (CCS) into the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is important, as the CDM is currently the only structural incentive for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the developing world. Without the potential incentives given by the CDM, CCS in developing countries will only take place sporadically in niche sectors. The debate around CCS in the CDM has developed into a highly polarised discussion, with a deep divide between proponents and opponents and no view on reconciliation between the various perspectives. Environmental organisations and several developing-country parties in the climate negotiations are increasingly vehemently opposed against CCS in the CDM, and industrialised countries, several large fossil-fuel-dependent developing countries and industry view CCS as a natural option under the CDM, provided some surmountable technical and procedural barriers are taken care of. This paper argues that the efforts of those trying to bring the discussion to a close by solving technical and procedural issues around CCS in the CDM will not lead to agreement because of underlying convictions of all stakeholders. Six convictions are identified and discussed. Based on the discussion of the convictions of both opponents and proponents, research needs and a potential negotiation package are suggested. The research needs are primarily in the field of the CDM market impacts of CCS, the issue of enhanced oil emission accounting, and sustainable development aspects, and particularly whether developing countries could actually benefit from technological leadership in the field of CCS, or whether they will be worse off. Devoting attention to the identified convictions could provide information for a more acceptable negotiation package on CCS in the CDM.