Exploring local CO2 mitigation strategies in transportation under ambitious national policies – A participatory energy system modelling approach

Sweden has adopted ambitious climate targets which require deep cuts in CO2 emissions from transportation. To achieve this, policies to incentivise road vehicle electrification and progressive blending-in of biofuels have been adopted. Many local governments have committed to doing their share, but the impact of local strategies remains unclear. Here, locally rooted mitigation strategies are explored by applying an iterative participatory energy-system modelling approach with multiple researcher-practitioner interactions stretching over two years. A comprehensive Energy System Optimisation Model (ESOM) was used to assess the impact of local mitigation strategies in 15 municipalities, under a set of existing ambitious national policies. The results show that, while local strategies can help reduce energy-related CO2 emissions, their direct impact is reduced under ambitious national policies that significantly cut CO2. Still, local mobility management strategies can help cut total final energy demand and have local benefits such as improved air quality and reduced traffic noise. Local policymakers should put a stronger emphasis on such benefits. Finally, the long-term participatory approach was a resource-intensive undertaking, but it helped to build practitioners’ trust and created an environment for mutual learning and a deeper understanding of the impact of different mitigation options in the local context.