Do policies make a difference? Revealing the impact of diverse low-carbon policies on China's journey to carbon neutrality

By quantifying the emission reduction impacts of regional low-carbon initiatives, this paper bridges policy design and implementation, highlighting actionable pathways to enhance regional contributions to global climate goals. Utilizing a novel dataset encompassing over 2600 regional low-carbon policies implemented across 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2021, we employed a two-way fixed effects model to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and further analyzed the heterogeneity of policy effects across policy types and regions. Overall, the issued policies lead to an average annual reduction of 10.42 % in per capita carbon emissions and 7.50 % in carbon intensity, significantly advancing carbon neutrality efforts. However, inland northwest regions like Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, despite accounting for a third of emissions, saw minimal policy impact. Notably, strategy-based policies proved most effective, with each additional strategy reducing per capita emissions growth by 1.0 % and carbon intensity growth by 0.8 %. Furthermore, the dynamic cumulative effects of these policies, alongside their interactive influences on local economic development levels and government efficiency, are empirically validated, underscoring the importance of tailored policy frameworks. To enhance the effectiveness of low-carbon initiatives, cross-regional collaborations must be prioritized, especially through long-distance cooperative models that transcend geographic barriers. Neighboring provinces should leverage geographic, economic, and energy structural similarities to establish low-carbon development alliances, facilitating technology sharing and resource integration.