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Endowment effects, expectations, and trading behavior in carbon cap and trade

Author

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  • Yoon, Beomseok
  • Filipski, Mateusz
  • Landry, Craig E.
  • Yoo, Seung Jick

Abstract

We explain agents' trading behaviors and market outcomes in the presence of endowment effects intensified by expectations-based loss aversion in carbon cap and trade. Building on Kőszegi and Rabin (2006)’s model with forward-looking reference points, we show how firms' concerns about high future compliance costs (through loss aversion and uncertainty) can cause a gap between Willingness-to-Pay and Willingness-to-Accept for allowances. This leads to limited allowance trading and deviation from the socially desirable paths. The problem can be exacerbated under a substantial proportion of free allocation, a fixed (or inflexible) cap as well as uncertain regulatory ambitions, particularly in emerging economies under a variety of uncertainty. Recognizing the regulator's role in dealing with firms' expectations (or concerns) and facilitating innovation investments, we discuss potential alternative systems (e.g., with auction and flexible supply) for decarbonization that incorporate flexibility in terms of innovation timing and realized costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoon, Beomseok & Filipski, Mateusz & Landry, Craig E. & Yoo, Seung Jick, 2024. "Endowment effects, expectations, and trading behavior in carbon cap and trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:139:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324006352
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107927
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cap and trade; Endowment effect; Expectation; Reference-dependent; Loss aversion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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