Path analysis of green finance on energy transition under climate change

An essential component of China's ecological civilization construction is the promotion of low-carbon and green energy transformation, which is also a necessary pre-condition for achieving its dual carbon goal. Focusing on 30 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China, this research decomposes energy transition into energy structure transition and energy efficiency upgrading, analyzes the impacts of green finance on energy transition and its intrinsic mechanism, and examines the moderating effects of climate change. The findings indicate that green finance significantly promotes energy transition, and this effect is still valid after a robustness test. Additionally, green finance supports the transition to clean, low-carbon energy sources through technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading. At the same time, this paper presents that climate change non-linearly hinders green finance's impact on clean energy transition. Finally, the promoting impact of green finance for energy transition demonstrates glaring regional variations, which are more significant in the non-central regions as well as the regions with a high level of green finance development. Therefore, in the context of the dual-carbon goal, this study proposes feasible recommendations for the further development of green finance and the promotion of energy transition.