IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v131y2024ics0140988324001087.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Darandary, Abdulelah
  • Mikayilov, Jeyhun I.
  • Soummane, Salaheddine

Abstract

Saudi Arabia enacted two waves of energy price reforms in 2016 and 2018 to effectively gauge their impact to curb historically fast-growing electricity demand. We quantify the effects of these policy measures on regional fuel consumption and carbon emissions. We model the resulting emissions and fuel savings on the supply side using an optimization model representing Saudi Arabia's power generation sector. We estimate that between 2016 and 2019, electricity demand decreased by 8.8% per year on average following price reforms, resulting in USD 1.4 billion in fuel savings. International oil prices would bring the total savings up to USD 9.8 billion. Moreover, we show that the two waves of reforming electricity prices avoided 81–102 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions, i.e., a potential increase of 8.2%–10.4% of the power sector's emissions. Our results for Saudi Arabia demonstrate the benefits of reforming energy prices for countries with administered tariffs as an effective tool to reduce inefficient demand and carbon emissions to achieve climate pledges.

Suggested Citation

  • Darandary, Abdulelah & Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Soummane, Salaheddine, 2024. "Impacts of electricity price reform on Saudi regional fuel consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324001087
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107400
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324001087
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107400?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aldubyan, Mohammad & Gasim, Anwar, 2021. "Energy price reform in Saudi Arabia: Modeling the economic and environmental impacts and understanding the demand response," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    2. Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Darandary, Abdulelah & Alyamani, Ryan & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Alatawi, Hatem, 2020. "Regional heterogeneous drivers of electricity demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling regional residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Jeyhun Mikayilov & Abdulelah Darandary, 2023. "Modeling and Projecting Regional Electricity Demand for Saudi Arabia," Methodology Papers ks--2023-mp01, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    4. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Lester C. Hunt & Ceyhun I. Mikayilov, 2016. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Demand in Azerbaijan Using Cointegration Techniques," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-31, December.
    5. Gasim, Anwar A. & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & De Lipsis, Vincenzo, 2023. "Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    6. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017. "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-27, September.
    7. Jeyhun Mikayilov & Abdulelah Darandary, 2023. "Commercial Electricity Demand Modeling: Do Regional Differences Matter?," Discussion Papers ks--2023-dp05, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    8. Karanfil, Fatih & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "The opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    9. Salaheddine Soummane & Amro Elshurafa & Hatem Al Atawi & Frank Felder, 2022. "Cross-seasonal Fuel Savings from Load Shifting in the Saudi Industrial Sector," Discussion Papers ks--2022-dp01, King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center.
    10. David Coady & Ian W H Parry & Baoping Shang, 2018. "Energy Price Reform: Lessons for Policymakers," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 12(2), pages 197-219.
    11. David Klenert & Linus Mattauch & Emmanuel Combet & Ottmar Edenhofer & Cameron Hepburn & Ryan Rafaty & Nicholas Stern, 2018. "Making carbon pricing work for citizens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 669-677, August.
    12. Beenstock, Michael & Dalziel, Alan, 1986. "The demand for energy in the UK : A general equilibrium analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 90-98, April.
    13. Lee, Kevin C & Pesaran, M Hashem & Pierse, Richard G, 1990. "Testing for Aggregation Bias in Linear Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(400), pages 137-150, Supplemen.
    14. Matar, Walid & Murphy, Frederic & Pierru, Axel & Rioux, Bertrand, 2015. "Lowering Saudi Arabia's fuel consumption and energy system costs without increasing end consumer prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 558-569.
    15. Shabaneh, Rami & Schenckery, Maxime, 2020. "Assessing energy policy instruments: LNG imports into Saudi Arabia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    16. Manal Ayyad Dhif Alshammry & Saqib Muneer, 2023. "The influence of economic development, capital formation, and internet use on environmental degradation in Saudi Arabia," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Fahad Saleh Al-Ismail & Md Shafiul Alam & Md Shafiullah & Md Ismail Hossain & Syed Masiur Rahman, 2023. "Impacts of Renewable Energy Generation on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Saudi Arabia: A Comprehensive Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-19, March.
    18. Alkhathlan, Khalid & Javid, Muhammad, 2013. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1525-1532.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Danieli Veronezi & Marcel Soulier & Tímea Kocsis, 2024. "Energy Solutions for Decarbonization of Industrial Heat Processes," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-23, November.
    2. Petitet, Marie & Felder, Frank A. & Elshurafa, Amro M., 2024. "Finding opportunity in economic power dispatch: Saving fuels without impacting retail electricity prices in fuel-producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gasim, Anwar A. & Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & De Lipsis, Vincenzo, 2023. "Modeling final energy demand and the impacts of energy price reform in Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Durand-Lasserve, Olivier & Almutairi, Hossa & Aljarboua, Abdullah & Pierru, Axel & Pradhan, Shreekar & Murphy, Frederic, 2023. "Hard-linking a top-down economic model with a bottom-up energy system for an oil-exporting country with price controls," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 266(C).
    3. Mikayilov, Jeyhun I. & Darandary, Abdulelah & Alyamani, Ryan & Hasanov, Fakhri J. & Alatawi, Hatem, 2020. "Regional heterogeneous drivers of electricity demand in Saudi Arabia: Modeling regional residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Filippo Maria D’Arcangelo & Ilai Levin & Alessia Pagani & Mauro Pisu & Åsa Johansson, 2022. "A framework to decarbonise the economy," OECD Economic Policy Papers 31, OECD Publishing.
    5. Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Ian W.H. Parry, 2020. "Reconsidering Climate Mitigation Policy in the UK," IMF Working Papers 2020/268, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Flachsland, Christian & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael, 2019. "Optionen für eine CO2-Preisreform," Working Papers 04/2019, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    7. Missbach, Leonard & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Ward, Hauke, 2023. "Assessing distributional effects of carbon pricing in Israel," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    8. Muñoz, Juan C. & Sauma, Enzo & Muñoz, Francisco D. & Moreno, Rodrigo, 2023. "Analysis of generation investments under price controls in cross-border trade of electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    9. Ruud Weijermars & Miao Jin & Nur Iman Khamidy, 2021. "Workflow for Probabilistic Resource Estimation: Jafurah Basin Case Study (Saudi Arabia)," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-24, December.
    10. Rioux, Bertrand & Shabaneh, Rami & Griffiths, Steven, 2021. "An economic analysis of gas pipeline trade cooperation in the GCC," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Schaffitzel, Filip & Jakob, Michael & Soria, Rafael & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Ward, Hauke, 2020. "Can government transfers make energy subsidy reform socially acceptable? A case study on Ecuador," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Marzio Galeotti & Fakhri J. Hasanov, 2018. "The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan," IEFE Working Papers 102, IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    13. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks & Matthias Kalkuhl, 2021. "Pigou in the 21st Century: a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1090-1121, October.
    14. Fakhri J. Hasanov & Zeeshan Khan & Muzzammil Hussain & Muhammad Tufail, 2021. "Theoretical Framework for the Carbon Emissions Effects of Technological Progress and Renewable Energy Consumption," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 810-822, September.
    15. Karanfil, Fatih & Pierru, Axel, 2021. "The opportunity cost of domestic oil consumption for an oil exporter: Illustration for Saudi Arabia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    16. Petitet, Marie & Felder, Frank A. & Elshurafa, Amro M., 2024. "Finding opportunity in economic power dispatch: Saving fuels without impacting retail electricity prices in fuel-producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    17. Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Jeyhun Mammadov, 2020. "Gasoline Demand Elasticities at the Backdrop of Lower Oil Prices: Fuel-Subsidizing Country Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-18, December.
    18. Missbach, Leonard & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2024. "Cash transfers in the context of carbon pricing reforms in Latin America and the Caribbean," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    19. Kruse, Tobias & Atkinson, Giles, 2022. "Understanding public support for international climate adaptation payments: Evidence from a choice experiment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    20. Touitou Mohammed, 2021. "Empirical Analysis of the Environmental Kuznets Curve for Economic Growth and CO2 Emissions in North African Countries," Econometrics. Advances in Applied Data Analysis, Sciendo, vol. 25(2), pages 67-77, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy price reform; Electricity demand modeling; Carbon emissions; Saudi Arabia; Power system modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O21 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Planning Models; Planning Policy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:131:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324001087. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.