IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v129y2024ics0140988323007430.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do geopolitical risks always harm energy security? Their non-linear effects and mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Chien-Chiang
  • Yuan, Zihao
  • He, Zhi-Wen
  • Xiao, Fu

Abstract

Exploring the link between geopolitical risk (GPR) and energy security (ES) is essential for ensuring national security and sustainable economic development in the face of frequent global geopolitical conflicts and escalating geopolitical threats. Based on the newly developed GPR index, this research uses unbalanced panel data for 35 nations from 2005 to 2018 to examine the influence of GPR on ES and its impact mechanism. The results show that GPR causes the U-shape effect on ES that first decreases (GPR < 0.59) and then increases (GPR > 0.59), meaning that GPR causes both negative and positive effects on ES, and the results remain robust after a series of tests. Transmission mechanism analysis indicates that renewable energy technology innovation is the key transmission mechanism for the U-shape impact of GPR on ES. Moderating effect analysis shows that international trade reinforces the U-shape effect of GPR on ES, meaning that it reinforces both the negative and positive effects of GPR on ES, while FDI only reinforces the positive effect of GPR on ES. Heterogeneity analysis presents that the U-shape effect of GPR on ES is more significant in OECD countries and net energy-importing countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & He, Zhi-Wen & Xiao, Fu, 2024. "Do geopolitical risks always harm energy security? Their non-linear effects and mechanism," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:129:y:2024:i:c:s0140988323007430
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988323007430
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.107245?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abel, Andrew B & Eberly, Janice C, 1994. "A Unified Model of Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1369-1384, December.
    2. Matthew A. Cole & Robert J. R. Elliott & Per G. Fredriksson, 2006. "Endogenous Pollution Havens: Does FDI Influence Environmental Regulations?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 108(1), pages 157-178, March.
    3. Sweidan, Osama D., 2021. "Is the geopolitical risk an incentive or obstacle to renewable energy deployment? Evidence from a panel analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 377-384.
    4. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    5. Cai, Yifei & Wu, Yanrui, 2021. "Time-varying interactions between geopolitical risks and renewable energy consumption," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 116-137.
    6. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    7. Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
    8. Wang, Qiang & Zhang, Fuyu, 2021. "Free trade and renewable energy: A cross-income levels empirical investigation using two trade openness measures," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 1027-1039.
    9. Amoako, Samuel & Insaidoo, Michael, 2021. "Symmetric impact of FDI on energy consumption: Evidence from Ghana," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    10. Wen, Huwei & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Fengxiu, 2022. "How does fiscal policy uncertainty affect corporate innovation investment? Evidence from China's new energy industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Adom, Philip Kofi, 2015. "Asymmetric impacts of the determinants of energy intensity in Nigeria," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 570-580.
    12. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Murad, Md. Wahid, 2020. "The impacts of economic growth, trade openness and technological progress on renewable energy use in organization for economic co-operation and development countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 382-390.
    13. Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    14. Richard F. J. Haans & Constant Pieters & Zi-Lin He, 2016. "Thinking about U: Theorizing and testing U- and inverted U-shaped relationships in strategy research," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 1177-1195, July.
    15. Chen, Hao & Liao, Hua & Tang, Bao-Jun & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "Impacts of OPEC's political risk on the international crude oil prices: An empirical analysis based on the SVAR models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 42-49.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Samia Nasreen & Chong Hui Ling & Rashid Sbia, 2014. "Causality between Trade Openness and Energy Consumption- What Causes What in High, Middle and Low Income Countries," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 53(4), pages 423-459.
    17. Dutta, Anupam & Dutta, Probal, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and renewable energy asset prices: Implications for sustainable development," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 518-525.
    18. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and bank stability," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    19. Nan, Shijing & Huo, Yuchen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "Assessing the role of globalization on renewable energy consumption: New evidence from a spatial econometric analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    20. Omar, Ayman M.A. & Wisniewski, Tomasz Piotr & Nolte, Sandra, 2017. "Diversifying away the risk of war and cross-border political crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 494-510.
    21. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Umar, Muhammad & Zhang, Weike, 2021. "Does renewable energy redefine geopolitical risks?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    22. Marques, António Cardoso & Caetano, Rafaela, 2020. "The impact of foreign direct investment on emission reduction targets: Evidence from high- and middle-income countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 107-118.
    23. Hübler, Michael & Keller, Andreas, 2010. "Energy savings via FDI? Empirical evidence from developing countries," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(1), pages 59-80, February.
    24. Wang, Wei & Xiao, Weiwei & Bai, Caiquan, 2022. "Can renewable energy technology innovation alleviate energy poverty? Perspective from the marketization level," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    25. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    26. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Hai-Ying & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "The impact of OPEC on East Asian oil import security: A multidimensional analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 99-107.
    27. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Tran, Vuong Thao & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2021. "Can energy security predict energy stock returns?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    28. Ibrahiem, Dalia M. & Hanafy, Shaimaa A., 2021. "Do energy security and environmental quality contribute to renewable energy? The role of trade openness and energy use in North African countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 667-678.
    29. Zhao, Pan & Lu, Zhou & Fang, Jianchun & Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Jiang, Kai, 2020. "Determinants of renewable and non-renewable energy demand in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 202-209.
    30. Su, Chi-Wei & Khan, Khalid & Tao, Ran & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2019. "Does geopolitical risk strengthen or depress oil prices and financial liquidity? Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    31. Paramati, Sudharshan Reddy & Ummalla, Mallesh & Apergis, Nicholas, 2016. "The effect of foreign direct investment and stock market growth on clean energy use across a panel of emerging market economies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 29-41.
    32. Shimbar, Ali & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2020. "Political risk and valuation of renewable energy investments in developing countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 1325-1333.
    33. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Fuhao, 2023. "Geopolitical risk and the sustainable utilization of natural resources: Evidence from developing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    34. Zhu, Chen & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The effects of low-carbon pilot policy on technological innovation: Evidence from prefecture-level data in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    35. Huwei Wen, Shuai Chen, and Chien-Chiang Lee, 2023. "Impact of Low-carbon City Construction on Financing, Investment, and Total Factor Productivity of Energy-intensive Enterprises," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    36. Noguera-Santaella, José, 2016. "Geopolitics and the oil price," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 301-309.
    37. Sebri, Maamar & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2014. "On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and trade openness: Fresh evidence from BRICS countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-23.
    38. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao, 2024. "Impact of energy poverty on public health: A non-linear study from an international perspective," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    39. Adom, Philip Kofi & Amuakwa-Mensah, Franklin, 2016. "What drives the energy saving role of FDI and industrialization in East Africa?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 925-942.
    40. Le, Thai-Ha & Nguyen, Canh Phuc, 2019. "Is energy security a driver for economic growth? Evidence from a global sample," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 436-451.
    41. Hussain, Jafar & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Yongxiu, 2022. "Optimal green technology investment and emission reduction in emissions generating companies under the support of green bond and subsidy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    42. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Vangelis Arvanitis, 2013. "Does Terrorism Affect the Stock‐Bond Covariance? Evidence from European Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(4), pages 832-848, April.
    43. Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Kutan, Ali M., 2019. "Dynamic transmission mechanisms in global crude oil prices: Estimation and implications," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1181-1193.
    44. Lee, Chien-Chiang & He, Zhi-Wen, 2022. "Natural resources and green economic growth: An analysis based on heterogeneous growth paths," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    45. Mohsin, M. & Zhou, P. & Iqbal, N. & Shah, S.A.A., 2018. "Assessing oil supply security of South Asia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 155(C), pages 438-447.
    46. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adewuyi, Adeolu O. & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Quantile risk spillovers between energy and agricultural commodity markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    47. Iyke, Bernard Njindan & Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Exchange rate return predictability in times of geopolitical risk," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    48. Huang, Junbing & Du, Dan & Tao, Qizhi, 2017. "An analysis of technological factors and energy intensity in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1-9.
    49. Lin, Boqiang & Omoju, Oluwasola E. & Okonkwo, Jennifer U., 2016. "Factors influencing renewable electricity consumption in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 687-696.
    50. Huntington, Hillard G., 2018. "Measuring oil supply disruptions: A historical perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 426-433.
    51. David Popp, 2002. "Induced Innovation and Energy Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(1), pages 160-180, March.
    52. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Keueger, 1991. "Does Compulsory School Attendance Affect Schooling and Earnings?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 979-1014.
    53. Doytch, Nadia & Narayan, Seema, 2016. "Does FDI influence renewable energy consumption? An analysis of sectoral FDI impact on renewable and non-renewable industrial energy consumption," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 291-301.
    54. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    55. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Xing, Wenwu & Lee, Chi-Chuan, 2022. "The impact of energy security on income inequality: The key role of economic development," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    56. Liu, Min & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Is gold a long-run hedge, diversifier, or safe haven for oil? Empirical evidence based on DCC-MIDAS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    57. Ang, B.W. & Choong, W.L. & Ng, T.S., 2015. "Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1077-1093.
    58. Shijin Wang, 2017. "Impact of FDI on energy efficiency: an analysis of the regional discrepancies in China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(2), pages 1209-1222, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dong, Kangyin & Yang, Senmiao & Wang, Jianda & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Does Geopolitical Risk Accelerate Climate Vulnerability? New Evidence from the European Green Deal," Working Papers 15-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    2. Zhang, Xiuqi & Meng, Xiangyu & Su, Chi Wei, 2024. "The security of energy import: Do economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk really matter?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 377-388.
    3. Xu, Shuanglei & Deng, Youyi & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Geopolitical Conflict and Risk and the EU Energy Trading: A Dynamic Evolutionary Networks Analysis," Working Papers 14-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    4. Kartal, Mustafa Tevfik & Pata, Ugur Korkut & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2024. "Energy security risk and financial development nexus: Disaggregated level evidence from South Korea by cross-quantilogram approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 363(C).
    5. Ullah, Sana & Gozgor, Giray & Lu, Zhou, 2024. "How do conflicts affect energy security risk? Evidence from major energy-consuming economies," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 175-187.
    6. Zhang, Weike & Zeng, Ming, 2024. "Is artificial intelligence a curse or a blessing for enterprise energy intensity? Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Xu & Sun, Yi & Du, Zhili, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and China's oil security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    2. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zhou, Hegang & Xu, Chao & Zhang, Xiaoming, 2023. "Dynamic spillover effects among international crude oil markets from the time-frequency perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Chen, Zhuoyi & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Hongwei, 2024. "Can geopolitical risks impact the long-run correlation between crude oil and clean energy markets? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    4. Ibrahiem, Dalia M. & Hanafy, Shaimaa A., 2021. "Do energy security and environmental quality contribute to renewable energy? The role of trade openness and energy use in North African countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 667-678.
    5. Banna, Hasanul & Alam, Ashraful & Chen, Xihui Haviour & Alam, Ahmed W., 2023. "Energy security and economic stability: The role of inflation and war," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mehmet Akif Destek & Michael L. Polemis, 2018. "Do Foreign Capital and Financial Development Affect Clean Energy Consumption and Carbon Emissions? Evidence from BRICS and Next-11 Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 68(4), pages 20-50, October-D.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Wang, Qiaoru, 2022. "How does information and communication technology affect energy security? International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    8. Wang, Kai-Hua & Wen, Cui-Ping & Liu, Hong-Wen & Liu, Lu, 2023. "Promotion or hindrance? Exploring the bidirectional causality between geopolitical risk and green bonds from an energy perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    9. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Yuan, Zihao & Lee, Chi-Chuan & Chang, Yu-Fang, 2022. "The impact of renewable energy technology innovation on energy poverty: Does climate risk matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Wen, Huwei & Wen, Changyong & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "Impact of digitalization and environmental regulation on total factor productivity," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Fuhao & Lou, Runchi & Wang, Keying, 2023. "How does green finance drive the decarbonization of the economy? Empirical evidence from China," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 671-684.
    12. Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua & He, Zhifang, 2023. "Impact of geopolitical risks on investor attention and speculation in the oil market: Evidence from nonlinear and time-varying analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    13. Zhu, Chen & Jin, Zhuo & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2022. "The impact of informal care from children to their elderly parents on self-employment? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    14. Tan, Yan & Uprasen, Utai, 2022. "The effect of foreign direct investment on renewable energy consumption subject to the moderating effect of environmental regulation: Evidence from the BRICS countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P2), pages 135-149.
    15. Zhang, Xiaoming & Liang, Qian & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2023. "How does central bank transparency affect systemic risk? Evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 101-115.
    16. Qamruzzaman, Md & Jianguo, Wei, 2020. "The asymmetric relationship between financial development, trade openness, foreign capital flows, and renewable energy consumption: Fresh evidence from panel NARDL investigation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 827-842.
    17. Ghazouani, Tarek, 2022. "Dynamic impact of globalization on renewable energy consumption: Non-parametric modelling evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    18. Xu, Shuanglei & Deng, Youyi & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Geopolitical Conflict and Risk and the EU Energy Trading: A Dynamic Evolutionary Networks Analysis," Working Papers 14-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    19. Wang, Kai-Hua & Su, Chi-Wei & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Geopolitical risk and crude oil security: A Chinese perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    20. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Feng, Yi & Peng, Diyun, 2022. "A green path towards sustainable development: The impact of low-carbon city pilot on energy transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:129:y:2024:i:c:s0140988323007430. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.