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Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?

Author

Listed:
  • Ceballos, Luis
  • Piljak, Vanja
  • Swinkels, Laurens

Abstract

We investigate whether political risk is priced in the cross-section of corporate bond returns by using a text-based measure of firm-level political risk. We document a positive and significant political risk premium after controlling for bond and firm characteristics, conventional risk factors, and exposure to aggregate economic policy uncertainty. Bonds with higher political and credit risk, as well as smaller, more illiquid, and longer maturity corporate bonds exhibit a larger political risk premium. Time-series analysis indicates that monetary policy shocks and common shocks in the equity and bond market exhibit a statistically significant and positive association with the political risk premium. Our findings reveal the importance of idiosyncratic political risk beyond common risk factors and aggregate economic policy uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ceballos, Luis & Piljak, Vanja & Swinkels, Laurens, 2024. "Is firm-level political risk priced in the corporate bond market?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:79:y:2024:i:c:s0927539824000963
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101562
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bonds; Corporate bonds; Fixed income; Political risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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