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Persistent and transient variance components in option pricing models with variance-dependent Kernel

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  • Ghanbari, Hamed

Abstract

This paper examines theoretically and empirically a variance-dependent pricing kernel in the continuous-time two-factor stochastic volatility (SV) model. We investigate the relevance of such a kernel in the joint modeling of index returns and option prices. We contrast the pricing performance of this model in capturing the term structure effects and smile/smirk patterns to discrete-time GARCH models with similar variance-dependent kernels. We find negative and significant risk premium for both volatility factors, implying that investors are willing to pay for insurance against increases in volatility risk, even if it has little persistence. In-sample, the component GARCH model exhibits a slightly better fit overall and across all maturity buckets than the two-factor SV model. However, the two-factor SV model reduces strike price bias, giving rise to the model’s ability in reconciling the physical and risk-neutral distribution. Out-of-sample, the two-factor SV model has better fit to data.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghanbari, Hamed, 2024. "Persistent and transient variance components in option pricing models with variance-dependent Kernel," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:79:y:2024:i:c:s0927539824000665
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2024.101531
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    Keywords

    Component GARCH; Joint estimations; Two-factor GARCH; Two-factor stochastic volatility; Variance-dependent pricing Kernel; Variance risk premium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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