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Real estate prices: An international study of seasonality's sentiment effect

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  • Kaplanski, Guy
  • Levy, Haim

Abstract

The current study shows that real estate prices in several countries reveal a significant and persistent seasonality, where the highest rates of return are obtained in the spring and early summer, and the lowest rates of return are obtained in the fall. This seasonality is explained by a joint effect of the change in the number of daylight hours and the latitude of the area zone under consideration. Notably, latitude affects real estate prices above and beyond the effect of the change in the number of daylight hours, which by itself is a function of latitude. This joint effect is robust to the two explanations for seasonality given in the literature: the Matching Theory and the Bargaining Power Hypothesis, as well as to several macroeconomic variables. The effect also conforms to the well-known Seasonal Affective Disorder (SAD), which has been found in other studies to affect people's health, their risk attitude, and consequently their risk perception and investment decisions which, in turn, affect asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2012. "Real estate prices: An international study of seasonality's sentiment effect," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-146.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:19:y:2012:i:1:p:123-146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2011.11.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Balázs Zélity, 2024. "Seasonality and consumer confidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 76(3), pages 813-821, July.
    2. Selcuk, Cemil, 2014. "Seasonal cycles in a model of the housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 195-199.
    3. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2018. "Housing market sentiment and intervention effectiveness: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 91-110.
    4. William M. Doerner & Wenzhen Lin, 2022. "Applying Seasonal Adjustments to Housing Markets," FHFA Staff Working Papers 22-03, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    5. Georgios Bampinas & Stilianos Fountas & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "The day-of-the-week effect is weak: Evidence from the European Real Estate Sector," Discussion Paper Series 2015_02, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised May 2015.
    6. Xiaorong Zhou & Karen Gibler & Velma Zahirovic-Herbert, 2015. "Asymmetric buyer information influence on price in a homogeneous housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(5), pages 891-905, April.
    7. Erling Røed Larsen, 2024. "House price seasonality, market activity, and the December discount," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(1), pages 110-139, January.
    8. Shangkari V. Anusakumar & Ruhani Ali & Hooy Chee Wooi, 2017. "The Effect of Investor Sentiment on Stock Returns: Insight from Emerging Asian Markets," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 13(1), pages 159-178.
    9. Guy Kaplanski & Haim Levy, 2017. "Seasonality in Perceived Risk: A Sentiment Effect," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    10. Steven D. Dolvin & Stephanie A. Fernhaber, 2014. "Seasonal Affective Disorder and IPO underpricing: implications for young firms," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-68, January.
    11. Tantisantiwong, Nongnuch & Halari, Anwar & Helliar, Christine & Power, David, 2018. "East meets West: When the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 402-424.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market sentiment; Real estate prices; Prices' seasonality; Behavioral economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A12 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Relation of Economics to Other Disciplines
    • A14 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - Sociology of Economics
    • D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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