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Firm diversification and equilibrium risk pooling: The Korean financial crisis as a natural experiment

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  • Masson, Robert
  • Tookes, Heather
  • Um, Taejong

Abstract

We use the Korean Financial Crisis as a natural laboratory for examining interactions among firm diversification, equilibrium capital structure and tail probability events. When the crisis hit in 1997, several major firms, including a large number of highly leveraged conglomerates (Chaebols), experienced bankruptcies. We show how diversified Chaebols obtain higher equilibrium leverage than non-Chaebols (a "cosigner effect"). In the event of a low probability macro-economic shock, the model predicts a systematic change in relative bankruptcy risks of Chaebol firms. To examine this implication, we introduce an empirical methodology that decomposes equilibrium debt into demand, supply and Chaebol-specific factors, for use in a bankruptcy prediction model. We find that the primary cause of Chaebol firm bankruptcies was not idiosyncratic leverage, but leverage systematically related to greater equilibrium access to debt during normal times.

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  • Masson, Robert & Tookes, Heather & Um, Taejong, 2009. "Firm diversification and equilibrium risk pooling: The Korean financial crisis as a natural experiment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:10:y:2009:i:1:p:1-22
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    1. Lee, Sangwon, 2022. "The value of official business group affiliation: Evidence from a change in Korean chaebol designation policy," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).

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