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The demand for hedging of oil producers: A tale of risk and regret

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  • Ouzan, Samuel
  • Six, Pierre

Abstract

Rationalizing the relatively low levels of hedging observed in the oil market, compared to those predicted by pure risk minimization, has proven difficult. This article examines whether the objectives of oil producers can explain this discrepancy. From a theoretical perspective, it appears that the observed level of hedging is well explained by risk averse producers who also exhibit regret aversion towards potential losses in the derivatives market. When applying our models to the data, we find that regret effectively rationalizes producers' under-hedging and its persistence. Our results suggest that neither ambiguity surrounding basis risk, nor prospect theory can account for this behavior. Lastly, our findings indicate that relaxing the assumption of market completeness and considering quantity risk also fail to match the observed hedging activity of oil producers.

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  • Ouzan, Samuel & Six, Pierre, 2025. "The demand for hedging of oil producers: A tale of risk and regret," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 321(1), pages 330-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:321:y:2025:i:1:p:330-343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2024.09.036
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Regret aversion; Under-hedging; Oil market; Speculation; Ambiguity aversion; Prospect theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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