IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v217y2012i1p162-172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information

Author

Listed:
  • Liesiö, Juuso
  • Salo, Ahti

Abstract

In the selection of investment projects, it is important to account for exogenous uncertainties (such as macroeconomic developments) which may impact the performance of projects. These uncertainties can be addressed by examining how the projects perform across several scenarios; but it may be difficult to assign well-founded probabilities to such scenarios, or to characterize the decision makers’ risk preferences through a uniquely defined utility function. Motivated by these considerations, we develop a portfolio selection framework which (i) uses set inclusion to capture incomplete information about scenario probabilities and utility functions, (ii) identifies all the non-dominated project portfolios in view of this information, and (iii) offers decision support for rejection and selection of projects. The proposed framework enables interactive decision support processes where the implications of additional probability and utility information or further risk constraints are shown in terms of corresponding decision recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2012. "Scenario-based portfolio selection of investment projects with incomplete probability and utility information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 162-172.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:217:y:2012:i:1:p:162-172
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2011.08.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221711007661
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2011.08.025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Janne Gustafsson & Ahti Salo, 2005. "Contingent Portfolio Programming for the Management of Risky Projects," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(6), pages 946-956, December.
    2. Herbert Moskowitz & Paul V. Preckel & Aynang Yang, 1993. "Decision Analysis with Incomplete Utility and Probability Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 864-879, October.
    3. Kamal Golabi & Craig W. Kirkwood & Alan Sicherman, 1981. "Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(2), pages 174-189, February.
    4. Gordon B. Hazen, 1986. "Partial Information, Dominance, and Potential Optimality in Multiattribute Utility Theory," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 296-310, April.
    5. Gutjahr, Walter J. & Katzensteiner, Stefan & Reiter, Peter & Stummer, Christian & Denk, Michaela, 2010. "Multi-objective decision analysis for competence-oriented project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 670-679, September.
    6. Weber, Martin, 1987. "Decision making with incomplete information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 44-57, January.
    7. G. Hanoch & H. Levy, 1969. "The Efficiency Analysis of Choices Involving Risk," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 36(3), pages 335-346.
    8. Liesiö, Juuso & Mild, Pekka & Salo, Ahti, 2008. "Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 679-695, November.
    9. Paul L. Ewing & William Tarantino & Gregory S. Parnell, 2006. "Use of Decision Analysis in the Army Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC) 2005 Military Value Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 3(1), pages 33-49, March.
    10. Mara Airoldi & Alec Morton, 2011. "Portfolio Decision Analysis for Population Health," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton (ed.), Portfolio Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 359-381, Springer.
    11. Yael Grushka-Cockayne & Bert De Reyck & Zeger Degraeve, 2008. "An Integrated Decision-Making Approach for Improving European Air Traffic Management," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(8), pages 1395-1409, August.
    12. Dentcheva, Darinka & Ruszczynski, Andrzej, 2006. "Portfolio optimization with stochastic dominance constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 433-451, February.
    13. Liesio, Juuso & Mild, Pekka & Salo, Ahti, 2007. "Preference programming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1488-1505, September.
    14. Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1993. "Forecasting with scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 291-303, August.
    15. William B. Poland, 1999. "Simple Probabilistic Evaluation of Portfolio Strategies," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 29(6), pages 75-83, December.
    16. Aharon Ben-Tal & Dimitris Bertsimas & David B. Brown, 2010. "A Soft Robust Model for Optimization Under Ambiguity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(4-part-2), pages 1220-1234, August.
    17. James S. Dyer & Rakesh K. Sarin, 1979. "Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 810-822, August.
    18. Greco, Salvatore & Matarazzo, Benedetto & Slowinski, Roman, 2001. "Rough sets theory for multicriteria decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 1-47, February.
    19. Roger Chapman Burk & Gregory S. Parnell, 2011. "Portfolio Decision Analysis: Lessons from Military Applications," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Ahti Salo & Jeffrey Keisler & Alec Morton (ed.), Portfolio Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 333-357, Springer.
    20. Gülseren Kiziltan & Erkut Yucaou{g}lu, 1983. "An Algorithm for Multiobjective Zero-One Linear Programming," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(12), pages 1444-1453, December.
    21. Haim Levy, 1992. "Stochastic Dominance and Expected Utility: Survey and Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 38(4), pages 555-593, April.
    22. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    23. Shushang Zhu & Masao Fukushima, 2009. "Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1155-1168, October.
    24. Nikolaos Argyris & José Figueira & Alec Morton, 2011. "Identifying preferred solutions to Multi-Objective Binary Optimisation problems, with an application to the Multi-Objective Knapsack Problem," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 213-235, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Salo, Ahti & Doumpos, Michalis & Liesiö, Juuso & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2024. "Fifty years of portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti & Ilmola-Sheppard, Leena, 2018. "Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 205-220.
    3. Antti Punkka & Ahti Salo, 2014. "Scale Dependence and Ranking Intervals in Additive Value Models Under Incomplete Preference Information," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(2), pages 83-104, June.
    4. Liesiö, Juuso & Kallio, Markku & Argyris, Nikolaos, 2023. "Incomplete risk-preference information in portfolio decision analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(3), pages 1084-1098.
    5. Liesiö, Juuso & Punkka, Antti, 2014. "Baseline value specification and sensitivity analysis in multiattribute project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 946-956.
    6. Barbati, Maria & Greco, Salvatore & Kadziński, Miłosz & Słowiński, Roman, 2018. "Optimization of multiple satisfaction levels in portfolio decision analysis," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 192-204.
    7. Juuso Liesiö, 2014. "Measurable Multiattribute Value Functions for Portfolio Decision Analysis," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Fliedner, Thomas & Liesiö, Juuso, 2016. "Adjustable robustness for multi-attribute project portfolio selection," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(3), pages 931-946.
    9. Baker, Erin & Bosetti, Valentina & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Robust portfolio decision analysis: An application to the energy research and development portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 1107-1120.
    10. Harju, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Virtanen, Kai, 2019. "Spatial multi-attribute decision analysis: Axiomatic foundations and incomplete preference information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 275(1), pages 167-181.
    11. Punkka, Antti & Salo, Ahti, 2013. "Preference Programming with incomplete ordinal information," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(1), pages 141-150.
    12. Eeva Vilkkumaa & Ahti Salo & Juuso Liesiö, 2014. "Multicriteria Portfolio Modeling for the Development of Shared Action Agendas," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 49-70, January.
    13. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
    14. Marttunen, Mika & Haara, Arto & Hjerppe, Turo & Kurttila, Mikko & Liesiö, Juuso & Mustajoki, Jyri & Saarikoski, Heli & Tolvanen, Anne, 2023. "Parallel and comparative use of three multicriteria decision support methods in an environmental portfolio problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 842-859.
    15. Liesiö, Juuso & Andelmin, Juho & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Efficient allocation of resources to a portfolio of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 619-636.
    16. Liesiö, Juuso & Kee, Taeyoung & Malo, Pekka, 2024. "Modeling project interactions in multiattribute portfolio decision analysis: Axiomatic foundations and practical implications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(3), pages 988-1000.
    17. Liesiö, Juuso & Mild, Pekka & Salo, Ahti, 2008. "Robust portfolio modeling with incomplete cost information and project interdependencies," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 679-695, November.
    18. Zhang, Xinwei & Yan, Yong & Wang, Lilin & Wang, Yang, 2024. "A ranking approach for robust portfolio decision analysis based on multilinear portfolio utility functions and incomplete preference information," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Tom Pape, 2020. "Value of agreement in decision analysis: Concept, measures and application," Papers 2012.13816, arXiv.org.
    20. Salo, Ahti & Andelmin, Juho & Oliveira, Fabricio, 2022. "Decision programming for mixed-integer multi-stage optimization under uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 550-565.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:217:y:2012:i:1:p:162-172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.