IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v189y2008i3p1208-1216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On path correlation and PERT bias

Author

Listed:
  • Banerjee, Arunava
  • Paul, Anand

Abstract

Most studies of project time estimation assume that (a) activity times are mutually independent random variables; many also assume that (b) path completion times are mutually independent. In this paper, we subject the impact of both these assumptions to close scrutiny. Using tools from multivariate analysis, we make a theoretical study of the direction of the error in the classical PERT method of estimating mean project completion time when correlation is ignored. We also investigate the effect of activity dependence on the normality of path length via simulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Banerjee, Arunava & Paul, Anand, 2008. "On path correlation and PERT bias," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(3), pages 1208-1216, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:189:y:2008:i:3:p:1208-1216
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377-2217(07)00594-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth R. MacCrimmon & Charles A. Ryavec, 1964. "An Analytical Study of the PERT Assumptions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 12(1), pages 16-37, February.
    2. Larry J. Ringer, 1971. "A Statistical Theory for Pert in Which Completion Times of Activities are Inter-Dependent," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 17(11), pages 717-723, July.
    3. Bajis Dodin, 1985. "Bounding the Project Completion Time Distribution in PERT Networks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 33(4), pages 862-881, August.
    4. Genaro Gutierrez & Anand Paul, 2000. "Analysis of the Effects of Uncertainty, Risk-Pooling, and Subcontracting Mechanisms on Project Performance," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 48(6), pages 927-938, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhichao Zheng & Karthik Natarajan & Chung-Piaw Teo, 2016. "Least Squares Approximation to the Distribution of Project Completion Times with Gaussian Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 64(6), pages 1406-1421, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tetsuo Iida, 2000. "Computing bounds on project duration distributions for stochastic PERT networks," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(7), pages 559-580, October.
    2. Vaseghi, Forough & Martens, Annelies & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2024. "Analysis of the impact of corrective actions for stochastic project networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 316(2), pages 503-518.
    3. Xuan Vinh Doan & Karthik Natarajan, 2012. "On the Complexity of Nonoverlapping Multivariate Marginal Bounds for Probabilistic Combinatorial Optimization Problems," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 138-149, February.
    4. Kamburowski, J., 1997. "New validations of PERT times," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 323-328, June.
    5. Pérez, José García & Martín, María del Mar López & García, Catalina García & Sánchez Granero, Miguel Ángel, 2016. "Project management under uncertainty beyond beta: The generalized bicubic distribution," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 67-76.
    6. Junguang Zhang & Dan Wan, 2021. "Determination of early warning time window for bottleneck resource buffer," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 300(1), pages 289-305, May.
    7. Williams, Terry, 1999. "Towards realism in network simulation," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 305-314, June.
    8. Huang, Ding-Hsiang & Huang, Cheng-Fu & Lin, Yi-Kuei, 2020. "Exact project reliability for a multi-state project network subject to time and budget constraints," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    9. Li, Xiaobo & Natarajan, Karthik & Teo, Chung-Piaw & Zheng, Zhichao, 2014. "Distributionally robust mixed integer linear programs: Persistency models with applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 459-473.
    10. García Pérez, J., 1998. "El método de subasta como complemento al PERT clásico," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 10, pages 71-88, Diciembre.
    11. Van de Vonder, Stijn & Demeulemeester, Erik & Herroelen, Willy & Leus, Roel, 2005. "The use of buffers in project management: The trade-off between stability and makespan," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 227-240, August.
    12. Vanhoucke, Mario, 2010. "Using activity sensitivity and network topology information to monitor project time performance," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 359-370, October.
    13. A. Hernández-Bastida & M. P. Fernández-Sánchez, 2019. "How adding new information modifies the estimation of the mean and the variance in PERT: a maximum entropy distribution approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 291-308, March.
    14. Lau, Hon-Shiang & Somarajan, C., 1995. "A proposal on improved procedures for estimating task-time distributions in PERT," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 39-52, August.
    15. Finer, David Andrew, 2022. "No Shock Waves through Wall Street? Market Responses to the Risk of Nuclear War," Working Papers 318, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.
    16. Javier Castro & Daniel Gómez & Juan Tejada, 2014. "Allocating slacks in stochastic PERT network," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 22(1), pages 37-52, March.
    17. Song, Jie & Martens, Annelies & Vanhoucke, Mario, 2021. "Using Schedule Risk Analysis with resource constraints for project control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 736-752.
    18. Yakhchali, Siamak Haji & Ghodsypour, Seyed Hassan, 2010. "Computing latest starting times of activities in interval-valued networks with minimal time lags," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 200(3), pages 874-880, February.
    19. Jürgen Mihm, 2010. "Incentives in New Product Development Projects and the Role of Target Costing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(8), pages 1324-1344, August.
    20. Badinelli, Ralph D., 1996. "Approximating probability density functions and their convolutions using orthogonal polynomials," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 211-230, November.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:189:y:2008:i:3:p:1208-1216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.