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The role of economic news in predicting suicides

Author

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  • Moscone, Francesco
  • Tosetti, Elisa
  • Vittadini, Giorgio

Abstract

In this paper we explore the role of media and language used to comment on economic news in nowcasting and forecasting suicides in England and Wales. This is an interesting question, given the large delay in the release of official statistics on suicides. We use a large data set of over 200,000 news articles published in six major UK newspapers from 2001 to 2015 and carry sentiment analysis of the language used to comment on economic news. We extract daily indicators measuring a set of negative emotions that are often associated with poor mental health and use them to explain and forecast national daily suicide figures. We find that highly negative comments on the economic situation in newspaper articles are predictors of higher suicide numbers, especially when using words conveying stronger emotions of fear and despair. Our results suggest that media language carrying very strong, negative feelings is an early signal of a deterioration in a population’s mental health.

Suggested Citation

  • Moscone, Francesco & Tosetti, Elisa & Vittadini, Giorgio, 2024. "The role of economic news in predicting suicides," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:55:y:2024:i:c:s1570677x24000650
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2024.101413
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Suicide; Health outcomes; Text analysis; Emotions extraction; Forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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