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Credit-based early warning indicators of banking crises in emerging markets

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  • Geršl, Adam
  • Jašová, Martina

Abstract

This article explores the role of credit-based variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in the context of emerging economies. We collect data on bank and total credit to the private sector in emerging markets and evaluate the signalling performance by using the area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results show that nominal credit growth and the change in the credit-to-GDP ratio have the best signalling properties and significantly outperform the credit-to-GDP gap in almost all specifications for policy-relevant horizons. These findings are in stark contrast with the results on advanced economies, where the credit-to-GDP gap is the single best performing EWI. Our results emphasize the importance of caution when applying statistical methods calibrated for advanced markets to emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Geršl, Adam & Jašová, Martina, 2018. "Credit-based early warning indicators of banking crises in emerging markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 18-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:42:y:2018:i:1:p:18-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2017.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Bouvatier, Vincent & El Ouardi, Sofiane, 2023. "Credit gaps as banking crisis predictors: A different tune for middle- and low-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Maria Siranova & Karol Zelenak, 2023. "Every crisis does matter: Comparing the databases of financial crisis events," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 652-686, May.
    3. Yusuf Yıldırım & Anirban Sanyal, 2022. "Evaluating the Effectiveness of Early Warning Indicators: An Application of Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Approach to Panel Data," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 69(4), pages 557-597, December.
    4. Fu, Junhui & Zhou, Qingling & Liu, Yufang & Wu, Xiang, 2020. "Predicting stock market crises using daily stock market valuation and investor sentiment indicators," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Audit, Dooneshsingh & Alam, Nafis, 2022. "Why have credit variables taken centre stage in predicting systemic banking crises?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early warning indicators; Banking crises; Credit growth; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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