Estimating impacts of population growth and land use policy on ecosystem services: A community-level case study in Virginia, USA

Despite advances in decision-making tools and frameworks, the consideration of ecosystem services in local, regional, and national scale planning remains limited. In this study, we address two broad goals: (1) By using “off the shelf” data and tools, we provide a practical example for how local policy makers can incorporate considerations of ecosystem services in land use planning; and (2) To understand the complex and non-linear relationships between population growth, land use change, land use policy, and ecosystem services. Focusing on Albemarle County and Charlottesville, VA, we assess impacts on a range of ecosystem services using a land consumption ratio that links the land use to population density patterns. Varying levels of population growth were modeled and impacts to ecosystem services quantified given current land use policies. With increasing population growth, ecosystem services that exist within areas targeted for growth are initially compromised. However, once growth pressures reach a threshold, ecosystem services across the region are dramatically degraded. These findings point to the tradeoffs that community-level planners face when ecosystem services are considered in the context of population growth. Our results also highlight the importance of maintaining permanent protection on lands with high natural and cultural value.