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Effects of temperature on asexual reproduction and jellyfish booms of Aurelia aurita: Insights from mathematical modeling

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  • Wang, Wei
  • Wang, Mengjie
  • Wang, Hao

Abstract

Elucidating the benthic stage growth and reproductive mechanisms of Aurelia aurita contributes to understanding irregular jellyfish blooms. This paper establishes a four-stage life history model of A. aurita (Polyp–Strobila–Ephyra–Medusa) to investigate the influence of seasonal temperature variations on the abundance of A. aurita. Sensitivity analyses indicate that jellyfish are most sensitive to bottom-up supplementation, with strobilation identified as an essential process in their life cycle. We explore the effects of parameters directly associated with strobilation in the Jiaozhou Bay area on population size, summarizing the interannual variations across the four stages of A. aurita, which aligns with empirical data. The investigation reveals that (i) consistent with recent biological literature, strobilation of A. aurita in temperate regions primarily occurs during periods of increasing spring sea surface temperatures rather than during autumn temperature declines, leading to summer jellyfish blooms; (ii) regression and subsequent strobilation favor an increase in the pelagic medusae population; (iii) the influence of rising sea surface temperatures due to climate change on the growth and reproduction of A. aurita manifests as initial stimulation followed by inhibition; (iv) earlier strobilation in spring may lead to more extensive A. aurita outbreaks in summer, providing insights for early warning of jellyfish blooms.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Wei & Wang, Mengjie & Wang, Hao, 2025. "Effects of temperature on asexual reproduction and jellyfish booms of Aurelia aurita: Insights from mathematical modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 499(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:499:y:2025:i:c:s030438002400303x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yu, Shiyang & Song, Da & Fan, Meng & Xie, Congbo, 2023. "Effects of temperature and salinity on growth of Aurelia aurita," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
    2. Xie, Congbo & Fan, Meng & Kang, Yun, 2021. "Population dynamics of the giant jellyfish Nemopilema nomurai with age structure," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 441(C).
    3. Ruiz, Javier & Prieto, Laura & Astorga, Diana, 2012. "A model for temperature control of jellyfish (Cotylorhiza tuberculata) outbreaks: A causal analysis in a Mediterranean coastal lagoon," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 233(C), pages 59-69.
    4. Rahi, Joe El & Weeber, Marc P. & Serafy, Ghada El, 2020. "Modelling the effect of behavior on the distribution of the jellyfish Mauve stinger (Pelagia noctiluca) in the Balearic Sea using an individual-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 433(C).
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    1. Yu, Shiyang & Song, Da & Fan, Meng & Xie, Congbo, 2023. "Effects of temperature and salinity on growth of Aurelia aurita," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 476(C).
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