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Thermal reaction norm for sexualization: The missing link between temperature and sex ratio for temperature-dependent sex determination

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  • Monsinjon, Jonathan R.
  • Guillon, Jean-Michel
  • Wyneken, Jeanette
  • Girondot, Marc

Abstract

Species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) can experience biased sex ratios in natural conditions, which raises questions the vulnerability of populations in the face of climate change. Studies addressing the adaptive significance TSD have been hampered by the difficulty of accurately estimating sex ratios under natural incubation conditions. Here we introduce the thermal reaction norm for sexualization, a novel concept measuring the strength of masculinization or feminization of temperatures, to model the effect of temperature for sex determination in TSD species. We use hatchling sex ratio data and field incubation temperatures collected between 2002 and 2018 at a globally important loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting rookery. The new parametrization makes possible the understanding of how temperature-sensitive sex determination works. We show that the temperature could influence the sexualization of the gonad earlier than what is currently recognized. Additionally, we explore the results of several easy to implement proxies that have been used in literature. Our approach greatly outperforms previous ones in sex ratio prediction. Our results should help further studies to refine population-wide primary sex ratio estimates of reptiles with TSD to adapt current conservation strategies and develop them in the future.

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  • Monsinjon, Jonathan R. & Guillon, Jean-Michel & Wyneken, Jeanette & Girondot, Marc, 2022. "Thermal reaction norm for sexualization: The missing link between temperature and sex ratio for temperature-dependent sex determination," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:473:y:2022:i:c:s0304380022002204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.110119
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    1. Fuentes, Mariana M.P.B. & Monsinjon, Jonathan & Lopez, Milagros & Lara, Paulo & Santos, Alexsandro & dei Marcovaldi, Maria A.G. & Girondot, Marc, 2017. "Sex ratio estimates for species with temperature-dependent sex determination differ according to the proxy used," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 365(C), pages 55-67.
    2. Philip Heidelberger & Peter D. Welch, 1983. "Simulation Run Length Control in the Presence of an Initial Transient," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 31(6), pages 1109-1144, December.
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    1. Catron, Spencer & Roth, Sarah & Zumpano, Francesca & Bintz, Jason & Fordyce, James A. & Lenhart, Suzanne & Miller, Debra L. & Wyneken, Jeanette, 2023. "Modeling the impacts of temperature during nesting seasons on Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) Sea Turtle populations in South Florida," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).

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