IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v461y2021ics0304380021003124.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles

Author

Listed:
  • Colomer, Mª Àngels
  • Margalida, Antoni
  • Sanuy, Isabel
  • Llorente, Gustavo A.
  • Sanuy, Delfí
  • Pujol-Buxó, Eudald

Abstract

All of the environmental conditions in nature act on an organism simultaneously. However, in experimental studies of the factors influencing metamorphosis, each factor needs to be examined individually in order to disentangle its specific effects. However, it is challenging to then build properly integrated models which include data on all of the different factors evaluated in different experiments. This study set out to develop a predictive model which could synthesize the results of several experiments on survival, development and growth of Natterjack toad (Epidalea calamita) tadpole guilds. The proposed Population Dynamic P System (PDP) model enables estimates of growth and development during the larval phase, under different environmental conditions, weather conditions, predator density, and pond characteristics and management. The architecture of the model allows the inclusion of an indefinite number of parameters and interactions, with all inputs interacting in parallel, and enables solutions to complex modeling approaches. Using the model with a range of field data, we found that the importance of predation pressure on Natterjack toad tadpole guilds exceeds the potential effects of variations in temperature and precipitation. The impact of introduced invasive predators therefore arguably poses the greatest threat to this species. This type of model holds promise as a reliable management and conservation tool for this and other species, especially where interactions between environmental factors make the impacts of individual factors difficult to predict.

Suggested Citation

  • Colomer, Mª Àngels & Margalida, Antoni & Sanuy, Isabel & Llorente, Gustavo A. & Sanuy, Delfí & Pujol-Buxó, Eudald, 2021. "A computational model approach to assess the effect of climate change on the growth and development of tadpoles," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 461(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:461:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021003124
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380021003124
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109763?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Colomer, M. Àngels & Margalida, Antoni & Sanuy, Delfí & Pérez-Jiménez, Mario J., 2011. "A bio-inspired computing model as a new tool for modeling ecosystems: The avian scavengers as a case study," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(1), pages 33-47.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    2. Colomer, M. Àngels & Montori, Albert & García, Eder & Fondevilla, Cristian, 2014. "Using a bioinspired model to determine the extinction risk of Calotriton asper populations as a result of an increase in extreme rainfall in a scenario of climatic change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 281(C), pages 1-14.
    3. García-Quismondo, Manuel & Reed, J. Michael & Chew, Frances S. & Martínez-del-Amor, Miguel A. & Pérez-Jiménez, Mario J., 2017. "Evolutionary response of a native butterfly to concurrent plant invasions: Simulation of population dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 410-424.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:461:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021003124. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.