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Potential elevation shift of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion under future global warming

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  • Khalatbari Limaki, Mahdieh
  • Es-hagh Nimvari, Majid
  • Alavi, Seyed Jalil
  • Mataji, Asadollah
  • Kazemnezhad, Farid

Abstract

Iran's Hyrcanian forests cover a relatively narrow strip in the north part of Iran, which are among the most important and valuable ecosystems registered in UNESCO's World Heritage List. Although there are worries about the impact of climate change, the influences of this issue on tree species in the Hyrcanian forest less studied. The effect of climate change on species distribution usually results in species shifting to higher altitudes and latitudes. In this study, the effect of climate change on the elevation shift of oriental beech as one of the most abundant and important tree species of the Hyrcanian forests was investigated, using an ensemble species distribution model for the current year, 2050, and 2070 under different climatic scenarios. Totally, 1092 occurrences of the beech were recorded for constructing the models. Results showed the mean elevation of the beech at the current climate conditions was 1110 m, which will be shifted to higher altitudes. The mean elevation distribution under RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 were 1210 m, 1279.2 m, 1280 m, and 1340 m for the year 2050; for the year 2070, they were 1190 m, 1370 m, 1340 m, and 1460.2 m. As a result, the species will shift to higher altitudes under the future climate change. The predicted potential distributions suggested that the most suitable areas for oriental beech at the current climate conditions are in the center (Mazandaran province) and west (Guilan province). Because of climate change, high potential habitats for the beech will shift from east to west that can provide a vision into the availability of suitable areas for the species regeneration and reforestation programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalatbari Limaki, Mahdieh & Es-hagh Nimvari, Majid & Alavi, Seyed Jalil & Mataji, Asadollah & Kazemnezhad, Farid, 2021. "Potential elevation shift of oriental beech (Fagus orientalis L.) in Hyrcanian mixed forest ecoregion under future global warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:455:y:2021:i:c:s0304380021001988
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109637
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Watling, James I. & Brandt, Laura A. & Bucklin, David N. & Fujisaki, Ikuko & Mazzotti, Frank J. & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Speroterra, Carolina, 2015. "Performance metrics and variance partitioning reveal sources of uncertainty in species distribution models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 309, pages 48-59.
    2. Fernández, Pilar & Jordano, Diego & Haeger, Juan Fernández, 2015. "Living on the edge in species distribution models: The unexpected presence of three species of butterflies in a protected area in southern Spain," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 335-346.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Yajuan & Zhang, Lijin & Wang, Huan & Wang, Yueyao & Ding, Jiaqi & Shen, Jiashu & Wang, Zheng & Liu, Yinglu & Liang, Chenyu & Li, Shuangcheng, 2022. "Reconstructing deforestation patterns in China from 2000 to 2019," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 465(C).

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