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CISTA-A: Conceptual model using indicators selected by systems thinking for adaptation strategies in a changing climate: Case study in agro-ecosystems

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  • Anandhi, Aavudai

Abstract

Adapting our ecosystems to climate change for sustainable management requires an understanding of three broad interconnected systems: ecosystems, climate systems and adaptive management and planning systems. Multiple factors shape adaptive responses to a changing climate because of the complexities and multi-disciplinary nature of these three systems. In this study, the conceptual model CISTA-A (CISTA for Agro-ecosystems) is developed using Indicators that are identified as using a Systems Thinking approach to Adaptation. CISTA addresses questions concerning “how to adapt” our ecosystems to climate change and has three or more layers: A base (element) layer has abiotic/biotic information (e.g. ecological, agro-hydrological, and meteorological data). One or more components (intermediate) layer(s) have ecological, agro-hydrological, and climatological indicators (e.g. length of the growing season and growing degree days) that affect the ecosystem. Indicators are identified and estimated from an element layer. In the final layer, the translation of information from indicators to adaptation strategies (incremental systems and transformational adaptation) depends on the degree of change and the level of adaptation. CISTA can stand alone or combine with existing crop/integrated assessment models to develop quantitative adaptation strategies. The use of 23 indicators and 3 empirical tests in the agro-ecosystems (AS) of Kansas, USA demonstrate the application of CISTA-A.

Suggested Citation

  • Anandhi, Aavudai, 2017. "CISTA-A: Conceptual model using indicators selected by systems thinking for adaptation strategies in a changing climate: Case study in agro-ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 41-55.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:345:y:2017:i:c:p:41-55
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.11.015
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    Cited by:

    1. Bentley, Chance & Anandhi, Aavudai, 2020. "Representing driver-response complexity in ecosystems using an improved conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 437(C).
    2. Marcela Prokopová & Luca Salvati & Gianluca Egidi & Ondřej Cudlín & Renata Včeláková & Radek Plch & Pavel Cudlín, 2019. "Envisioning Present and Future Land-Use Change under Varying Ecological Regimes and Their Influence on Landscape Stability," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-24, August.
    3. Vassiliki Vlami & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Ioannis Charalampopoulos & Thomas Doxiadis & Christos Giannakopoulos & Miltiades Lazoglou, 2023. "A Transect Method for Promoting Landscape Conservation in the Climate Change Context: A Case-Study in Greece," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Khaleel Muhammed & Aavudai Anandhi & Gang Chen, 2022. "Comparing Methods for Estimating Habitat Suitability," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.

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