IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v316y2015icp211-216.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling sensitivity to climate change and estimating the uncertainty of its impact: A probabilistic concept for risk assessment in forestry

Author

Listed:
  • Mellert, Karl H.
  • Deffner, Veronika
  • Küchenhoff, Helmut
  • Kölling, Christian

Abstract

Many uncertainties emerge dealing with future climate conditions and their possible impacts on forests. In this paper we suggest a probabilistic approach extending existing ensemble species distribution modeling concepts by addressing important sources of uncertainty. We exemplify our approach using European beech as the target tree species and bioclimatic predictors derived from WorldClim data. Model parameter uncertainty is represented by 1000 parameter samples from a Bayesian generalized linear model. Climate change impact (CCI) is based on 63 different climate model outputs using four RCP-scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) in addition to the parameter uncertainty. The proposed difference of the probability of occurrence pocc to a predefined threshold, allows for evaluation of parameter uncertainty as well as for the uncertainty of future climate and describes the changing niche position. Further, we suggest the probability that the probability of occurrence exceeds a predefined threshold (pexc) as a metric for the distance of a site to the niche edge. These metrics are unambiguously determinable, intuitive and evident. Stands at a central, a marginal and an intermediate niche position are taken to exemplify deduction and application of pocc and pexc. A regional exercise shows how a map of pexc may support forest management planning and decision making under severe uncertainty. A key advantage of our novel metrics is the reformulation of common species distribution model (SDM) outputs in terms of risk thereby accounting for two important sources of uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Mellert, Karl H. & Deffner, Veronika & Küchenhoff, Helmut & Kölling, Christian, 2015. "Modeling sensitivity to climate change and estimating the uncertainty of its impact: A probabilistic concept for risk assessment in forestry," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 316(C), pages 211-216.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:316:y:2015:i:c:p:211-216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.014
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380015003774
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.08.014?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Mitja Skudnik & Maria Rizzo & Karl Mellert & Wolfgang Falk & Maria Naumann & Holger Veit & Thomas Gschwandtner & Ulrich Ulmer & Signe Normand & Eliane S. Meier & Andrej Breznik, 2013. "Potential Future Ranges of Tree Species in the Alps," Chapters, in: Gillian Cerbu & Marc Hanewinkel & Giacomo Al. Gerosa & Robert Jandl (ed.), Management Strategies to Adapt Alpine Space Forests to Climate Change Risks, IntechOpen.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Maximilian Axer & Robert Schlicht & Rico Kronenberg & Sven Wagner, 2021. "The Potential for Future Shifts in Tree Species Distribution Provided by Dispersal and Ecological Niches: A Comparison between Beech and Oak in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-20, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:316:y:2015:i:c:p:211-216. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.