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A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread of Bactrocera fruit flies

Author

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  • García Adeva, J.J.
  • Botha, J.H.
  • Reynolds, M.

Abstract

This paper reports on the design, construction and testing of a novel simulation model for the establishment and spread of fruit fly. The model permits the investigation of spatio-temporal development of a fruit fly outbreak under variable environmental conditions and taking account of the location, availability and suitability of preferred food, and of the existence of obstacles to spread. Implementation of the simulator is designed to make it suitable for use at various levels of outbreak management and biosecurity. Initial efforts at validating the predictions against actual historical outbreak data indicate that the simulator could be an useful tool to support decision making.

Suggested Citation

  • García Adeva, J.J. & Botha, J.H. & Reynolds, M., 2012. "A simulation modelling approach to forecast establishment and spread of Bactrocera fruit flies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 93-108.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:227:y:2012:i:c:p:93-108
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Waterhouse, Doug F. & Sands, D.P.A., 2001. "Classical Biological Control of Arthropods in Australia," Monographs, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research, number 117719.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diouf, Esther Gnilane & Brévault, Thierry & Ndiaye, Saliou & Faye, Emile & Chailleux, Anaïs & Diatta, Paterne & Piou, Cyril, 2022. "An agent-based model to simulate the boosted Sterile Insect Technique for fruit fly management," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 468(C).

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