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Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?

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  • Podur, Justin
  • Wotton, Michael

Abstract

Using anomalies calculated from General Circulation Model (GCM) climate predictions we developed scenarios of future fire weather, fuel moisture and fire occurrence and used these as the inputs to a fire growth and suppression simulation model for the province of Ontario, Canada. The goal of this study was to combine GCM predictions with the fire growth and suppression model to examine potential changes in area burned in Ontario due to climate change, while accounting for the large fire suppression activities of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Results indicate a doubling of area burned in the Intensive and Measured fire management zones of Ontario by the decade of 2040 and an eightfold increase in area burned by the end of the 21st century in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A2 scenario; smaller increases were found for the A1b and B1 scenarios. These changes are driven by increased fire weather conducive to large fire growth, and increases in the number of fires escaping initial attack: for the Canadian GCM's business-as-usual (A2) scenario, escaped fire frequency increased by 34% by 2040 and 92% by the end of the 21st century. Incorporating more detail on large fire growth than previous studies, our model predicts higher area burned under climate change than do these previous studies, as large numbers of high-intensity fires overwhelm suppression capacity.

Suggested Citation

  • Podur, Justin & Wotton, Michael, 2010. "Will climate change overwhelm fire management capacity?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(9), pages 1301-1309.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:221:y:2010:i:9:p:1301-1309
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.01.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. L. Martell & R. J. Drysdale & G. E. Doan & D. Boychuk, 1984. "An Evaluation of Forest Fire Initial Attack Resources," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(5), pages 20-32, October.
    2. Sun, Jianfeng & Peng, Changhui & McCaughey, Harry & Zhou, Xiaolu & Thomas, Valerie & Berninger, Frank & St-Onge, Benoît. & Hua, Dong, 2008. "Simulating carbon exchange of Canadian boreal forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 276-286.
    3. White, Thomas & Luckai, Nancy & Larocque, Guy R. & Kurz, Werner A. & Smyth, Carolyn, 2008. "A practical approach for assessing the sensitivity of the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 373-382.
    4. Zhou, Xiaolu & Peng, Changhui & Dang, Qing-Lai & Sun, Jianfeng & Wu, Haibin & Hua, Dong, 2008. "Simulating carbon exchange in Canadian Boreal forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(3), pages 287-299.
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    Cited by:

    1. Emily S Hope & Daniel W McKenney & John H Pedlar & Brian J Stocks & Sylvie Gauthier, 2016. "Wildfire Suppression Costs for Canada under a Changing Climate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    2. M. Flannigan & B. Wotton & G. Marshall & W. de Groot & J. Johnston & N. Jurko & A. Cantin, 2016. "Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 59-71, January.
    3. M. D. Flannigan & B. M. Wotton & G. A. Marshall & W. J. de Groot & J. Johnston & N. Jurko & A. S. Cantin, 2016. "Fuel moisture sensitivity to temperature and precipitation: climate change implications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 134(1), pages 59-71, January.

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