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A model of Cellular Automata for the spatial and temporal analysis of Citrus Sudden Death with the fuzzy parameter

Author

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  • da Silva Peixoto, Magda
  • de Barros, Laécio Carvalho
  • Bassanezi, Rodney Carlos

Abstract

Citrus Sudden Death (CSD) is a disease that has affected sweet orange trees grafted on Rangpur lime in the south of Minas Gerais state and in the north of São Paulo state (Brazil). This is a worrying characteristic because the Rangpur lime responds to 85% of the Brazilian citrus rootstocks. This disease is believed to be caused by a virus transmitted by aphids (vector) of the citrus. In this work, we have adopted the Cellular Automata model (CA) to study the temporal evolution of the disease. We take into account the effect of the wind in the space covered by the aphid. To establish the relationship between the space covered by the aphid and the intensity of the wind, we have adopted the rule-based fuzzy system. Simulations were performed and compared to real data. Through the use of the mean absolute error (MAE) method, it was possible to verify a 70% of similarity between our model of data and the real one.

Suggested Citation

  • da Silva Peixoto, Magda & de Barros, Laécio Carvalho & Bassanezi, Rodney Carlos, 2008. "A model of Cellular Automata for the spatial and temporal analysis of Citrus Sudden Death with the fuzzy parameter," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 45-52.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:214:y:2008:i:1:p:45-52
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Gong, Jian-zhou & Liu, Yan-sui & Xia, Bei-cheng & Zhao, Guan-wei, 2009. "Urban ecological security assessment and forecasting, based on a cellular automata model: A case study of Guangzhou, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(24), pages 3612-3620.

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