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Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis

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  • Ibáñez, Javier
  • Valderrama, Jaime Martínez
  • Puigdefábregas, Juan

Abstract

This paper describes a procedure for evaluating the desertification risk in threatened areas. The procedure is based on an eight-equation dynamic model of a generic human–resource system that can be applied to different desertification syndromes. For each application, interest focuses on finding all the possible long-term final states of the system and on defining the conditions that mark out sustainability and long-term desertification by means of unambiguous specific parameter relations. The procedure is applied to three typified cases in Spain: (A) rainfed crops in areas with high soil erosion risk; (B) irrigated intensive agricultural systems; and (C) commercial rangelands. Results show that, in case A, high profit scenarios are responsible for the final extension of desertification but do not determine the specific threshold between sustainability and desertification. They do, however, in cases B and C.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibáñez, Javier & Valderrama, Jaime Martínez & Puigdefábregas, Juan, 2008. "Assessing desertification risk using system stability condition analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 180-190.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:213:y:2008:i:2:p:180-190
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.11.017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ibáñez, Javier & Martínez, Jaime & Schnabel, Susanne, 2007. "Desertification due to overgrazing in a dynamic commercial livestock–grass–soil system," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 205(3), pages 277-288.
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    3. N/A, 1980. "Chapter I. The Medium Term: Prospects and Problems," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 94(1), pages 6-19, November.
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