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Application of automated model discovery from data and expert knowledge to a real-world domain: Lake Glumsø

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  • Atanasova, Nataša
  • Todorovski, Ljupčo
  • Džeroski, Sašo
  • Kompare, Boris

Abstract

In this paper, we apply automated modelling method Lagramge to the task of modelling phytoplankton dynamics in Lake Glumsø, Denmark. The approach is based on integrating expert knowledge in the process of automated model induction from measured data. It supports modelling of ecosystem dynamics with ordinary differential equations by following the mass conservation law. The data set used in this paper comprises 2 years daily measurements of data needed for phytoplankton modelling in lake. In order to have sufficient data set for training and testing the models, the entire data set was divided in two parts, each containing 1 year of daily measurements. The expert knowledge supplied to Lagramge consists of elementary models of the basic ecological processes related to the food web dynamics and rules for combining elementary into complex models of the whole system. By applying Lagramge on Lake Glumsø we discovered a set of phytoplankton models that showed good fit on the training data set. The models were evaluated by simulating them on testing data set, which revealed good performance of the models.

Suggested Citation

  • Atanasova, Nataša & Todorovski, Ljupčo & Džeroski, Sašo & Kompare, Boris, 2008. "Application of automated model discovery from data and expert knowledge to a real-world domain: Lake Glumsø," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 92-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:212:y:2008:i:1:p:92-98
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.10.032
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    Cited by:

    1. Fan, Xing-Rong & Kang, Meng-Zhen & Heuvelink, Ep & de Reffye, Philippe & Hu, Bao-Gang, 2015. "A knowledge-and-data-driven modeling approach for simulating plant growth: A case study on tomato growth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 363-373.
    2. Čerepnalkoski, Darko & Taškova, Katerina & Todorovski, Ljupčo & Atanasova, Nataša & Džeroski, Sašo, 2012. "The influence of parameter fitting methods on model structure selection in automated modeling of aquatic ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 136-165.

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